Q2 Industry Insights: Reconciling consumer, economic indicators and embracing AI

By on July 29th, 2025 in Customer Experience, Industry Insights, Machine Learning
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Despite economic uncertainty, Americans continue to spend, albeit what they’re spending on has shifted. After two consecutive months of reduced spending, consumers came back in June with purchasing focused heavily on necessities like clothing and personal care, rather than electronics or appliances. Discretionary spending also stayed strong on restaurants and bars, indicating that while consumers are feeling some amount of pressure from the economy, it hasn’t really hit their wallets just yet. But economists and key indicators are foretelling more financial challenges ahead, so consumer sentiment may not be keeping up with reality.

The debt collection industry is navigating a period of transformation via a combination of regulatory shifts, technological advancements and evolving economic pressures. Key developments continue to reshape collection strategies, compliance requirements and the tools used to recover outstanding debts. As you protect your bottom line in a rapidly evolving consumer financial landscape, let’s look at what you should consider as it relates to debt collection with an eye toward the second half of 2025.

Key Economic Indicators

After several months of speculation and fluctuation, inflation is starting to heat back up, potentially showing the first impacts of tariffs and signaling what’s ahead. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May, pushing the annual CPI inflation rate higher to 2.7%, the highest since February. The increase was driven by higher gas prices and a broad assortment of goods showing the effects of businesses sharing higher import costs with consumers.

On the jobs front, the economy added 110,000 jobs in June. Looking at the number of jobs added through the first part of the year shows an average of 124,000 jobs per month, which is significantly lower than last year’s monthly average of 168,000. With layoff activity relatively low and wage growth remaining decent, economic uncertainty has slowed the pace of hiring and created a somewhat stagnant employment market.

The Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% at their meeting in mid-June, and Wall Street economists are predicting the central bank to continue their wait-and-see approach at their next meeting in July given June’s reported CPI and expected PCE inflation increases. Bets are now on a September rate cut if the inflation threat cools and the jobs market weakens more noticeably.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q1 2025 showed that total household debt in the US reached $18.20 trillion, a $167 billion or 0.97% increase from the prior quarter. This growth was primarily driven by increases in student loan and mortgage balances, while credit card and auto loan balances decreased. The report showed delinquency rates rising, with 4.3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency, the highest level since the beginning of 2020.  

Mortgage loans experienced a significant rise in early and mid-stage delinquencies across all credit categories in May. Mortgage delinquencies increased to 1.03% from 0.92% the previous month, suggesting that the housing market might be showing initial indicators of financial strain among homeowners.

What’s Impacting Consumer Finances?

Just as more student loan delinquencies are reported and sent to collections, borrowers who had previously been granted an interest-free forbearance period under the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan will lose those benefits. On August 1, the administration will resume interest charges on the accounts of around 8 million borrowers as the SAVE program and several other income-driven payment options end. Overall, the change will see borrowers being charged more than $27 billion in interest over the next 12 months, which will have wide repercussions on students and families.

And in a reversal of a move by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) earlier this year, a federal judge recently blocked a rule that would have removed unpaid medical debt from the credit reports of about 15 million consumers who carry a total of roughly $49 billion in medical debt. This financial burden could influence creditworthiness and access to loans for many.

What’s Impacting the Debt Collection Industry?

On the federal level, the CFPB has announced a new set of supervision and enforcement priorities for 2025. The bureau intends to reduce the number of its supervisory exams, focusing instead on cases of tangible consumer harm and actual fraud. While this may mean fewer routine audits for collection agencies, it signals more intense scrutiny on practices that directly and negatively impact consumers, with a continued focus on areas including mortgages, credit reporting, and FCRA and FDCPA violations.

In June, the CFPB also published a policy statement in the Federal Register outlining its approach to addressing criminally liable regulatory offenses under statutes including the Consumer Financial Protection Act and Truth in Lending Act, among others.

In efforts to enhance efficiency, the debt collection industry is rapidly embracing new technologies, and artificial intelligence (AI) and digital communication platforms are at the forefront of this technological wave. AI is being leveraged more widely to personalize consumer engagement, predict payment likelihood, and optimize collection strategies. Meanwhile, digital channels like Rich Communication Services (RCS) are gaining traction as innovative methods for consumer contact, offering more interactive and self-service options.

However, the use of technology and collection tactics remains under the watchful eye of regulators. In a significant enforcement action in June 2025, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) secured a permanent ban against a debt collection operation found to be using deceptive and harassing methods to collect on “phantom debts.” This action underscores the agency’s ongoing commitment to cracking down on illegal collection practices and serves as a reminder to the industry of the severe consequences of non-compliance.

How are consumers feeling about their financial outlook?

In analyzing consumer sentiment, it’s important to note that the following surveys relay responses may have been taken before the latest inflation figures were released, so there may be an incongruity in reporting. 

The Fed’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that households’ inflation expectations decreased at the short-term and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term periods. Unemployment job loss and household income growth expectations improved while spending growth expectations slightly declined. In general, households were more optimistic about their year-ahead financial outlook.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, reporting from mid-way through July, showed that Consumer sentiment ticked up about one index point to 61.8 from June, reaching its highest value in five months, but still 16% below December 2024 and its historical average. Expected personal finances fell back about 4%, with the report noting that consumers are unlikely to regain their economic confidence until they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to rise.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The report showed less positivity about current business conditions and job availability, as well as more pessimism about business conditions, job availability and income prospects over the next six months.

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

The debt collection industry in mid-2025 is at a pivotal juncture, tasked with balancing the adoption of powerful new technologies and navigating a challenging economic environment while adhering to an evolving regulatory framework. The ability to adapt to these concurrent trends will mean success for businesses in this sector. For lenders and collectors, here are a few things to keep in mind:

  1. Consumers expect more in debt collection. Gone are the days of debt collection letters or calls from unknown numbers eliciting a productive response. Now, consumers want empathy, understanding and convenience in their financial matters. Keeping up with consumer expectations can mean the difference between collecting debt and not.
  1. Self-service is one of those key expectations. Convenience by way of self-serving is a win-win for your business and consumers. Offering a comprehensive self-serve portal means consumers can engage whenever they want (even outside traditional FDCPA-regulated hours) and reduces resources needed to manage accounts and process payments.
  1. Ready or not, AI is here. Technology is already transforming debt collection by changing the way lenders and collectors engage with consumers, and if you’re not getting on board, you’ll find your business soon left behind. The time to thoughtfully adopt AI is now. Not sure where to start? Here are the must-know tech terms to get you going.

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