2023 brought a whirlwind of an economy, and we spent most of the year trying to predict when things would finally turn around. The good news is that things are looking up, and so are consumer sentiments on their financial outlook. Despite the optimism, consumers are still battling high prices and interest rates, though the holiday shopping numbers would make you think otherwise. For consumers, the challenge of balancing finances persists and holiday spending hangovers are adding to the swing. If you’re a creditor or collector working with financially distressed borrowers, considering consumer situations against the economic landscape and accommodating their financial needs and preferences when collecting is critical to your success.

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and why employing digital strategies to boost engagement is more important than ever for debt collection in 2024 and beyond.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

After a lengthy struggle against inflation and high interest rates, the economy is showing welcome signs of strength and stability, ending the year in a far better position than most predicted. Headline PCE fell 0.1% in November and was up only 2.6% from last year, unemployment remained flat at 3.7% and the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9% from July to September. The Federal Reserve has indicated that the rate hikes are finished and it will be looking at cutting rates starting in 2024, an encouraging sign for the economy and consumers.

The fourth quarter marked the resumption of student loan payments for 22 million Americans, but repayment results were low. In October, the first month of resumed payments, 8.8 million borrowers missed their student loan payment—that’s 40% of loan holders. Some of this miss is attributed to an overwhelmed system and people making use of the Education Department’s 12-month “on-ramp” period, which guarantees that missed payments will not be reported to credit agencies until September 2024, protecting borrowers from the harshest consequences of missed payments like delinquency, default and collections. But interest will continue to accrue and only time will tell how much of this miss is actually due to inability to repay and what that will mean for those who can’t.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has had its hands full overseeing actors across sectors–from regional and large banks to auto and online lenders to mortgage and credit agencies–in an ongoing effort to protect consumers in an ever-growing landscape of financial product offerings. And as offerings grow, so do the issues the CFPB must watch. In Q4, the CFPB issued statements and proposed rules relating to accelerating open banking, oversight of big tech companies and other digital financial service providers, and discrimination concerns. Bureau director Rohit Chopra himself has an eye on the future, saying he’s concerned that a handful of firms and individuals could wield “enormous control over decisions made throughout the world” with advances in artificial intelligence.

The CFPB also took a close look at fees and interest rates, issuing guidance to stop large banks from charging illegal fees for basic customer service and finding that many college-sponsored financial products offer students unfavorable terms and unusual fees. And despite recent changes at banks and credit unions that have eliminated billions of dollars in fees charged each year, a December report found that many consumers are still being hit with unexpected overdraft and nonsufficient fund (NSF) fees. A reported 43% were surprised by their most recent account overdraft, while 35% thought it was possible and only 22% expected it.

Key Indicators and Consumer Finances

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023 to $17.29 trillion. Breaking it down, credit card balances increased by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion in Q3 2023, showing a 4.7% quarterly increase while auto loan balances rose by $13 billion and now stand at $1.6 trillion. Student loan balances also increased by $30 billion up to $1.6 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $2 billion. 

Experian’s Ascend Market Insights for November reports overall delinquency (30+ DPD) rose in November, with a 7.26% increase in delinquent units and an increase of 3.54% in delinquent balances month over month. Serious delinquency (90+ DPD) continued to rise month-over-month for all products except auto loans, which appear to be stabilizing. Credit card delinquency rates, on the other hand, rose sharply in Q3, landing at 5.3% and up more than 2% from the previous year. Notably, according to a Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the composition of newly delinquent credit card borrowers, the rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad across demographics, but is particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans.

After months of increasing delinquency rates, it’s not surprising that charge-off rates are following. The charge-off rate for all consumer loans was 2.41% at the end of Q3, up from 1.32% a year ago. As for credit card debt, the charge-off rates clocked in at 3.79%, up more than a half point from Q2 2023 and up from 2.1% a year ago.

The savings rate fell to 3.8% in Q3, down from 5.2% in Q2, while consumer spending jumped by 4%. This spending helped drive up the quarter’s GDP growth rate, but less saving could be a sign of financial strain amidst nagging high prices. And the excess savings from the pandemic? Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began, which could spell trouble for consumers in the event of an emergency or unexpected life event. About 116,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in Q3, slightly more than in the previous quarter. And currently, approximately 4.7% of consumers have a 3rd party collection account on their credit report.

Consumer Sentiment on Financial Outlook Improves

The economy’s resilience seems to be encouraging for consumers, with Americans’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months falling in December to the lowest level seen this year. In fact, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 110.7, up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. The overall increase in December reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, combined with less pessimistic views of business, labor market and personal income outlook over the next six months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations supports the optimistic findings. The report found that median one-year ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2 % in November to 3.4%—the lowest reading since April 2021. Combining economic optimism with a decline in expected spending, the result is a 0.2% decrease in the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months, which is good news for lenders.

Similarly, Deloitte’s ConsumerSignals financial well-being index, which captures changes in how consumers are feeling about their present-day financial health and future financial security based on the consumer’s own financial experience, increased to 101.4 in November, up from 99.1 last month and up from 97.6 a year ago. The overall takeaway is that many consumers are feeling better about their financial situations and are more optimistic about the future of the economy.

Preparing for Debt Collection in 2024

Optimism about the economy’s turnaround hasn’t hit wallets just yet—consumers are still feeling the financial pinch of the high costs of rent, groceries and other basics that haven’t started retreating to pre-pandemic levels. But that didn’t stop holiday shopping—U.S. consumers spent a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, up 7.5% from 2022. Cyber Monday numbers were even stronger—consumers spent $12.4 billion, up 9.6% from the previous year. And those figures don’t include the ​​118.8 million Americans who spent money at brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday weekend. 

Today’s consumer is using more and different financial products to cover the cost of the holidays, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) was a big driver of purchasing power this year amidst elevated interest rates. BNPL purchases, which allow shoppers to buy items on short-term credit and frequently with no interest, also reached a record high on Cyber Monday, making up $940 million of the total online spending—an increase of 42.5% over last year. While a helpful product for consumers, BNPL can be tricky as it doesn’t show up on most credit reports and can be an invisible and unaccounted-for debt burden. 

Every year, an estimated one-third of American adults go into debt to pay for holiday expenses. Growing debt balances, stubborn interest rates and elevated prices are still a thorn for consumers, and contribute to their overall financial stability. For lenders, service providers and debt collectors, guaranteeing repayment will still be a challenge as we start into 2024. So what’s the best way forward in engaging customers in debt collection who are balancing expenses and a bit of a holiday shopping hangover? Here are some things to consider:

1. Prepare for timely factors. Keep in mind post-holiday bills can make January a difficult month to collect from consumers. But tax season is almost here, when consumers’ refunds create a better scenario for repayment of past-due balances. Plan for this time accordingly and ensure your engagement strategy is in place before February. 

2. Consider email deliverability. Just sending emails doesn’t guarantee your message will reach your customer. With inundated inboxes, your outreach strategy needs to include how to cut through the clutter and ensure successful email delivery of your customer communications. Learn more about deliverability, the most important debt collection metric you probably aren’t measuring, and how it impacts your debt collection efforts.

3. Options are your way forward. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from our consumer interactions, including the 16.5 million we added in 2023, it’s that no two consumers are the same, and what works for one may not work for the next. That’s why options are so important—in communication channel, customer support method, and perhaps most importantly, in repayment. Give your customers options for engagement and payment (think partial payments, payment plans, etc.) and you’ll likely see better collection results and customer experience.

With tumult in the banking industry in Q2 and inflation and economic stressors persisting, the financial outlook for American consumers remains uncertain. The ending of various pandemic-era benefits including the pause on student loan payments will impact consumers in the coming months. Student loan holders hoping for financial relief were disappointed in a Supreme Court decision that rejected President Biden’s plan to cancel more than $400 billion in student loan debt for millions of borrowers. Lawmakers are looking for other relief options, but in the meantime, many consumers will face higher monthly scheduled payments than they can cover, leading to delinquencies across credit types. If you’re a creditor or collector working with financially distressed borrowers, considering consumer situations and preferences when attempting to collect and employing digital strategies to boost engagement are more important than ever. 

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2023.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

High inflation and interest rates hung around in the second quarter of 2023. Inflation continued to ease month over month in May, landing at 4%, which is still double the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. The CPI rose 0.2% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for shelter accounted for more than 70% of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. 

In June, after 10 straight rate hikes, the Federal Reserve left the policy rate unchanged at the 5%-5.25% range, to allow time to see impacts from previous rate hikes. But “a strong majority” of Fed policymakers expect they will need to raise interest rates at least two more times by the end of 2023. Showing unexpected resilience despite higher interest rates, a late-June Commerce Department report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual pace from January through March as consumers spent at the fastest pace in nearly two years despite ever-rising borrowing costs.

In Q2, the pandemic-era benefit around Medicaid came to an end and has impacted more than 1.5 million Americans who lost health insurance coverage in April, May and June. Because only 26 states and the District of Columbia had publicly reported this data as of June 27, the actual number of people who lost coverage through the government’s main health insurance program for low-income people and people with certain disabilities, is undoubtedly much higher. The federal government has projected that about 15 million people will lose coverage, including nearly seven million people who are expected to be dropped despite still being eligible.

On the regulatory front, data protection is making headlines. Updates to the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), the Safeguards Rule, provide financial institutions, including those in the accounts receivable management industry, with requirements on how to safeguard customer information, went into effect on June 9. The amendments lay out a more prescriptive recipe for the safeguards financial institutions must have in place around collecting, storing and transmitting consumer information. Several states have actively been considering and passing new legislation requiring additional policies, controls, and practices not only in the data security space but also for data privacy and data breaches.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) published a Small Entity Compliance Guide covering the amendments to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and Regulation B, requiring that financial institutions compile and report certain data regarding certain business credit applications, including examples that explain how the requirements should be applied. 

There were also a couple of notable court decisions impacting debt collectors last quarter. First, the 6th circuit court of appeals determined that one phone call under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) is enough to establish standing, meaning the suit is based on an actual or imminent alleged injury that is concrete and particularized and, for the plaintiff in Ward v. NPAS, Inc., to establish a concrete injury. 

Second, and in a victory for TrueAccord, the Northern District of Illinois showcased the benefits of digital collection as the court found that receiving an email about a debt is less intrusive to consumers than receiving a phone call. In the Branham v. TrueAccord opinion, the court found that unlike telephone calls, two unwanted emails are insufficient to confer standing and wouldn’t be “highly offensive” to the reasonable person.

Key Indicators and the Student Loan Predicament

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased in the first quarter of 2023 by $148 billion (.9%) to $17.05 trillion. Debt increases showed up across almost all categories, with larger balances for mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans, retail cards and other consumer loans. Looking like an outlier, credit card balances were flat at $986 billion during Q1, but reading between the lines, this is the first time in more than 20 years that there hasn’t been a seasonal outright decline in that category.

And demand for more credit continues, which will drive household debt balances up farther. According to Experian’s June Ascend Market Insights report, new account originations were up 3.5% month over month with related balances up 7.7%. Breaking this down, auto loan account originations were up 0.7%, first mortgages were up 18.2%, while personal loans, HELOCs and second mortgages all grew significantly as well.

Indicators show that delinquency is here to stay. Experian reports that overall 30+ days past due (DPD) accounts showed a 0.4% increase month over month in May. While unsecured personal loan delinquency, which grew quickly in 2021 and 2022, has fallen for the fourth month in a row, this may be due to accounts progressing through delinquency – collections and charge-off rates for unsecured personal loans have grown to nearly 8% of balances. Auto loans, and particularly those in the subprime category, are seeing delinquency rates surpassing levels last seen during the Great Recession, coming in at 1.69% for 60+ DPD in Q1 2023.

Experian also reports that 1% of all consumer accounts rolled into higher stages of delinquency in April, which is in line with pre-pandemic norms and significantly higher than it was during the pandemic. Notably, 0.29% of accounts rolled into a lower delinquency status during May, a sign of collection effectiveness and of the relative financial health of delinquent consumers. This metric is still far below its historic norms and will be an important metric to watch as millions of consumers face higher monthly scheduled payments later this year tied to student loans.

After three years of relief from payments on $1.6 trillion in student debt under the CARES Act,  student loan debt is scheduled to begin accruing interest in September 2023, with payments due starting in October. 40+ million borrowers who paid $200 to $299 on average each month in 2019 will soon face the resumption of a bill that is often one of the largest line items in their household budgets. 

What’s more, research shows that student loan borrowers used extra space in their budgets during the pause to increase their leverage. Rather than paying down other debts, those eligible for the pause increased their leverage by 3% on average, or $1,200, compared with ineligible borrowers. According to the CFPB, as of September 2022, 46% of student loan borrowers had scheduled monthly payments for all credit products (excluding student loans and mortgages) that increased 10% or more relative to the start of the pandemic. 

The CFPB also reports that approximately 2.5 million student loan borrowers already had a delinquency on a non-student loan as of March 2023. That’s an increase of around 200,000 borrowers since September 2022, and that’s still without a monthly student loan payment obligation. This signals that many borrowers aren’t or won’t be in a financial position to repay or will face delinquencies on other loans in order to do so. For a data-driven look into this topic, read our report, “Consumer Finances, Student Loans and Debt Repayment in 2023”. 

Consumers Feel a Pinch but Remain Optimistic

As daily life continues to be more expensive for everyone, PYMNTS’ research finds that 61% of consumers lived paycheck to paycheck in April 2023, similar to the year prior. And the data shows that consumers in urban centers are especially feeling the financial crunch, likely due to a connection to cost of living, with 7 in 10 living paycheck to paycheck. Wealthier consumers comprise a growing portion of the paycheck-to-paycheck cohort, with the share of consumers annually earning more than $100,000 who live paycheck to paycheck increasing 7% from April 2022.

The US personal savings rate hovered at 4.6% in May, which is double last year’s record lows but still down significantly from pre-pandemic averages. Easing inflation seems to be improving consumers’ financial outlook, with fewer respondents citing concerns around savings levels, delaying large purchases, and worsening personal financial situations. However, the number of consumers feeling anxious about their job or employment situation steadily increased to 25% in May, up from 18% in February. 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s May 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7% to 11.3% in May. The increase was largest for respondents below the age of 40 with no more than a high school education, and those with a household income below $50k. Additionally, households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions and their own financial situations all deteriorated slightly.

For Debt Collection, Digital is Now a Must-Have

While consumers balance budgets amid high costs of living, more and more are using streamlined, digital payment methods. New studies show consumers are embracing the convenience of digital payments via payment portals even for healthcare bills, noting how it can minimize pain points in the payments process. Today, 9 out of 10 customers want an omnichannel experience with seamless service between communication methods, and transacting where it’s convenient for them, on mobile devices, is even better.

According to the Pew Research Center, reliance on smartphones for online access is especially common among younger adults, lower-income Americans and those with a high school education or less. In fact, 87% of TrueAccord consumers visit our web portal from their mobile devices and tablets, not their desktop computers. Choosing not to engage via digital methods can hurt vulnerable populations of consumers who primarily conduct most of their affairs digitally. 

If your business has been relying on calling alone for customer communications, it’s time to shift gears to a more effective way of maximizing repayment and conversion rates in a challenging financial environment. For lenders or collectors engaging with distressed borrowers, here are ways digital can boost your efforts:

1. Cost-effective customer communications at scale. When almost all communications with consumers can happen electronically via email and SMS with no human interaction, the cost of agents, who now only manage inbound emails or calls from already engaged customers, is reduced. Lenders that have implemented digital-first solutions have seen their cost of collections fall by at least 15%.

2. Online payment portals. When consumers can make payments online when it’s convenient for them, they’re more likely to repay. Add options like payment plans and flexible payment days to appeal to distressed borrowers and see repayment and liquidation rates improve.

3. Code-based compliance. When compliance is coded into an algorithm that helps make decisions on customer engagement in debt collection, you can ensure that all digital communications fall within federal and state laws and regulations. Compliance built into the code can help prevent costly mistakes especially with the complex patchwork of regulations.

What’s going on in the economy? In Q2, Jamie Dimon advised to brace for an economic “hurricane”, a prominent black swan investor said the financial system is most vulnerable to “the greatest credit bubble of human history”, and Elon Musk had a “super bad feeling”.

As we wrap the second quarter and first half of 2022, we’re watching some key factors impacting consumers and the credit industry and making sense of what it might mean and how to prepare your business.

Key Factor 1: Inflation

Despite robust wage growth (average hourly earnings up 5.5% over last year), consumers are seeing those gains eroded by an 8.6% inflation rate in May, the highest in 40 years. The latest increase was driven by sharp year-over-year rises in the prices for energy (+34.6%), groceries (+11.9%) and shelter costs (+5.5%), an indicator of broad inflation pressures. In fact, rental prices across the nation hit a new record high—for the 15th month in a row, according to a recent Realtor.com report. Rents climbed 15.5% annually in May, to hit a median of $1,849 in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. 

As things get more expensive, cash flow gets trickier to manage. When consumers stretch their budgets to account for higher prices, cash previously used for discretionary spending and saving disappears. Case in point: U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose in April by the most in three months, while the personal savings rate dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since 2008 and down for the fourth straight month. This indicates that many consumers are spending more and saving less.

And what about the people who have been living paycheck to paycheck and haven’t been able to accumulate savings? According to a recent study, this group includes 70% of millennials, but also 51% of Gen X and 54% of baby boomers and seniors. While some consumers are able to dip into their savings at a time like this, for many others it means looking for new lines of credit, which could be challenging because of…

Key Factor 2: Interest Rate Hikes

After another rate hike in June, the federal interest rate sits at 1.5-1.75% with the central bank expected to deliver more 50+ basis point rate hikes this year. While the markets are pricing these into forecasts, consumers will feel them more acutely in a number of ways.

A hike in the federal interest rate prompts a jump in the Bank Prime Loan Rate (prime rate), the credit rate that banks offer to their most credit-worthy customers and off of which they base other forms of consumer credit like mortgages and consumer loans. This means that those looking to open a new line of credit – as a stopgap for insufficient cash flow or otherwise – will pay more for the capital required to make purchases, with unfavorable terms that could lead to even more problems down the road. 

And we’re already seeing increased use of credit cards to deal with inflation. The Federal Reserve’s monthly credit report found that revolving credit jumped nearly 20% in April from the previous month to $1.103 trillion, breaking the pre-pandemic record. Credit card balances are also already up year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and are expected to keep rising, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For the estimated 55% of Americans who carry credit card debt month over month, paying off balances will get even more difficult for those not making minimum monthly payments. And opening a new credit card line may prove difficult – many lenders are or will be changing their strategies to stave off the looming threat of…

Key Factor 3: Rising Delinquencies

We all knew this was coming. Missed payments on certain loans are already on the rise. The Wall Street Journal reported that borrowers with credit scores below 620 (subprime) with car loans, personal loans or credit cards that are over 60 days late are “rising faster than normal.” And according to Experian’s Ascend Market Insights for June, there was an uptick in overall delinquency rates in May, with 30+ day past due accounts up 2.14% month over month, driven mostly by secured auto and mortgage loans.

The risk of delinquencies increases across the board of loan types when economic factors require consumers to stretch their dollars. When consumers spend more of their income on necessities, the surplus available for other expenses, like existing credit card or personal loan balances, dwindles, forcing consumers to prioritize payments. If your product or service is not essential to daily life, you may get pushed down the priority list and eventually dropped altogether as consumers try to make ends meet. And unfortunately for consumers, missing payments is also getting more expensive, especially on variable-rate products, and likely to compound an already financially sticky situation.

Key Factor 4: Regulatory and Compliance Guidelines

For those tasked with lending or recouping consumer loans, there are more regulatory considerations to keep in mind than before – debt collectors are under more scrutiny while lenders have similarly felt the regulatory squeeze with a number of new rulings in the past few months. Broadly, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) invoked a legal provision to examine nonbank financial companies that pose risks to consumers in an effort to help protect consumers and level the playing field between banks and nonbanks, meaning if you’re offering any financial services to consumers, you may be under the microscope.

Notably for lenders, the CFPB published an advisory opinion affirming that the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) bars lenders from discriminating against customers even after they have received a loan, not just during the application process. Further, if you’re a lender using complex algorithms or machine learning for underwriting, the federal anti-discrimination law requires you to explain to applicants the specific reasons for denying an application for credit or taking other adverse actions, and “the system said so” is not a valid excuse. 

For collectors, the CFPB enacted Regulation F late last year, and since its effective date in November has logged 2,300+ complaints* around debt collection communication tactics, which it aims to regulate, causing debt collectors to rethink their contact strategies or face repercussions. The organization also issued an advisory opinion to reduce “junk fees” charged by debt collectors and took stands against a number of repeat offenders this quarter, underlining their intent to step up consumer protection.

What to do?

While we aren’t sounding the alarms just yet, it’s certainly looking like a risky market for lending amid a tightening economy and a bleak outlook on consumer finances (many are predicting when, not if, the next recession will happen, or maybe it’s already here). And don’t forget that student loan repayments are set to resume in Q3, adding even more financial responsibility back to many consumers’ budgets. If you’re a lender, you’re likely rethinking your underwriting strategy and starting to consider the very real possibility of what happens if/when your customers start defaulting. If you’re in charge of recovering debt, you may be readying for an uphill battle.

As you prepare for what’s to come in consumer lending and debt, there is an important reality to keep in mind: Your target customer has changed. Consumer motivation for, ability to acquire and feasibility of keeping up with payments for most types of loans is very different today than it was a year ago. And that customer’s profile changes again when they start missing payments due to financial stressors. 

The best thing to do now is to ensure you have an effective collection strategy in place, preferably one that prioritizes customer experience to protect your brand, and necessarily takes compliance into account to protect your business. A technology-driven solution can not only help lenders handle an influx of delinquent accounts, but can help to preserve valuable relationships with customers as well. But not all tech is created equal – we took machine learning a step further and built HeartBeat, our patented decision engine, designed to reach every customer based on their unique situation so you won’t miss a single recovery opportunity. Learn more about how it works in our latest eBook.

*Data is from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Consumer Complaint Database, for the time period 11/30/21 – 6/24/22.