Tag: Industry Insights

Q3 Industry Insights: Inflation and Interest Rates Drop, Christmas Comes Early

By on October 22nd, 2024 in Compliance, Customer Experience, Industry Insights

The big inflation situation plaguing the U.S. for the past three years seems to be coming to an end, and it could be that American consumers are partially to thank. Tired of paying higher prices, consumers increasingly turned to cheaper alternatives, bargain hunted or simply avoided items they found too expensive, pressuring retailers to accommodate them or lose their business. That’s not to say Americans have stopped spending altogether—the economy continues to expand and people continue to struggle against inflated prices for necessities across the board, often still turning to credit cards to make ends meet.

With consumers setting the demand amidst elevated prices and inflation declining slowly, retailers have gotten an even earlier jump on holiday promotions this year in the hopes of boosting sales in a price-wary environment. Spreading holiday expenses out over a longer period of time may ease the financial burden slightly, but the cumulative dollars spent will still weigh heavily on consumer finances for Q4 and rolling into 2025. The National Retail Federation is forecasting that winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over last year, with a total reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

We are starting to feel an economic shift, but what does this all mean and what’s the outlook for the end of the year? Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances, how consumers are reacting and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection today.

What’s Impacting Consumers?

While not the straight line decline economists would like to see, the September results show that inflation is slowly and steadily easing back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. After several months of decreasing inflation and amid slowing job gains, the Fed in September announced the first in a series of interest rate cuts, slashing the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4.75-5%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that more interest rate cuts are in the plans but they would come at a slower pace, likely in quarter-point increments, intended to support a still-healthy economy and a soft landing. 

The rate cut plans have been made possible by consistently declining inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose just 2.4% in September from last year, down from 2.5% in August, showing the smallest annual rise since February 2021. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy costs, remained elevated in September, due in part to rising costs for medical care, clothing, auto insurance and airline fares. But apartment rental prices grew more slowly last month, a sign that housing inflation is finally cooling and foreshadowing a long-awaited development that would provide relief to many consumers.

The September jobs report supported the economic optimism by adding a whopping 254,000 jobs, far exceeding economists’ expectations of 140,000. The unemployment rate lowered to 4.1%, below projections of remaining steady at 4.2%. The government has also reported that the economy expanded at a solid 3% annual rate Q2, with growth expected to continue at a similar pace in Q3. This combination of downward trending interest rates and unemployment plus an expanding economy is great news for consumers and businesses alike, and can’t come soon enough for many financially strained Americans.

Coming out of Q2, total household debt rose by $109 billion to reach $17.80 trillion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase showed up across debt types: mortgage balances were up $77 billion to reach $12.52 trillion, auto loans increased by $10 billion to reach $1.63 trillion and credit card balances increased by $27 billion to reach $1.14 trillion. 

Unsurprisingly, delinquency and charge-off rates ticked up as consumers struggled against still relatively high prices and interest rates. In mid-September, shares of consumer-lending companies slid after executives raised warnings about lower-income borrowers who are struggling to make payments. Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages all increased slightly, with a steeper increase in flow to serious delinquency for credit cards, up more than 2% over last year from 5.08% to 7.18%. This kind of delinquency can be especially difficult for consumers to recover from given the record-high credit card rates many are stuck with.

While still low by historical standards, the mortgage delinquency rate was up 3 basis points in Q2 from the first quarter of 2024 and up 60 basis points from one year ago. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97% at the end of Q2, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, an increase that corresponded with a rise in unemployment and showed up across all product types.

For those with student loans, September marked the end of the ‘on-ramp’ to resuming payments, which was the set period of time that allowed financially vulnerable borrowers who missed payments during the first 12 months not to be considered delinquent, reported to credit bureaus, placed in default, or referred to debt collection agencies. However, the grace period is over and anyone who doesn’t resume making student loan payments in October risks a hit to their credit score—we will see these delinquencies reported in Q4.

Financial Protection for Consumers Across the Board

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) continued with a high level of activity through the summer. Along with taking action against more than a handful of financial services companies in the name of consumer protection, the agency made headway on myriad other issues.

To kick off Q3, the CFPB published Supervisory Highlights sharing key findings from recent examinations of auto and student loan servicing companies, debt collectors and other financial services providers that found loan servicing failures, illegal debt collection practices and issues with medical payment products. The report also highlighted consumer complaints about medical payment products and identified concerns with providers preventing access to deposit and prepaid account funds.

Then, the CFPB and five other agencies issued a final rule on automated valuation models. The agencies, including the OCC, FRB, FDIC, NCUA, and FHA designed the rule to help ensure credibility and integrity of models used in valuations for certain housing mortgages. The rule requires adoption of compliance management systems to ensure a high level of confidence in estimates, protect against data manipulation, avoid conflicts of interest, randomly test and review the processes and comply with nondiscrimination laws.

Next, the CFPB joined several other federal financial regulatory agencies to propose a rule to establish data standards to promote “interoperability” of financial regulatory data across the agencies. The proposal would establish data standards for identifiers of legal entities and other common identifiers.

Also in August, the CFPB responded to the U.S. Treasury’s request for information on the use of artificial intelligence in the financial services sector. The CFPB emphasized that regulators have a legal mandate to ensure that existing rules are enforced for all technologies, including new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and its subtypes. It’s clear that the CFPB has an interest in how those technologies are used and what the consumer impact may be.

In September, the bureau issued its annual report on debt collection, which highlighted aggressive and illegal practices in the collection of medical debt and rental debt. The report focused on improperly inflated rental debt amounts and on debt collectors’ attempts to collect medical bills already satisfied by financial assistance programs, also noting that many medical bills from low-income consumers do not get addressed by financial assistance in the first place.

Finally, the CFPB published guidance to help federal and state consumer protection enforcers stop banks from charging overdraft fees without having proof they obtained customers’ consent. Under the Electronic Fund Transfer Act, banks cannot charge overdraft fees on ATM and one-time debit card transactions unless consumers have affirmatively opted in.

Disjointed Consumer Sentiment Weighs Heavy

A September Consumer Survey of Expectations found that Americans anticipated higher inflation over the longer run as their expectations of credit turbulence rose to the highest level since April 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. While perceptions and expectations for credit access improved, the expected credit delinquency rates rose again and hit the highest level in more than four years. According to the survey, the average expected probability of missing a debt payment over the next three months rose for a fourth straight month to 14.2%, up from 13.6% in August, suggesting some Americans are concerned with their ability to manage their borrowing. 

Despite inflation easing, consumers perceive that the costs of everyday items are on the rise. According to the latest report from PYMNTS Intelligence, which tracks the percent of consumers living paycheck-to-paycheck, 70% of all consumers surveyed said their income has not kept up with inflation. This feeling is stronger for paycheck-to-paycheck consumers, with 77% of those struggling to pay bills on time reporting that their income hasn’t kept up with rising costs. Even for those not living paycheck to paycheck, 61% shared this concerning sentiment. As a result, consumers are buying cheaper or lesser quality alternatives, if they’re buying at all.

Prior to the September interest rate cuts, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index showed consumer confidence plunging to the most pessimistic economic outlook since 2021, based on a weaker job market and a high cost of living. Americans reported being anxious ahead of the upcoming election and assessments of current and future business conditions and labor market conditions turned negative.

However, following the Fed’s rate cut announcement, another report from the University of Michigan’s sentiment index showed a rise in late September, reaching a five-month high on more optimism about the economy. Consumer expectations for price increases dropped simultaneously with more expectations for declining borrowing costs in the coming year. Consumer sentiments on their finances directly impact their spending and payment behaviors, so understanding where they stand can inform a better debt collection approach. 

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

You’ve heard of Christmas in July, but Christmas in September? With the holiday shopping season starting earlier and in the midst of a high-stakes election, consumers will continue to prioritize expenses and spending based on their current financial outlook, which hasn’t yet caught up with the optimism showing up in the overall economy. The unknowns of what happens post-election along with the delayed impact of lower interest rates and inflation on spending leave the outcome for consumer finances uncertain. Delinquencies continue to persist and it may be some time before the benefits of a friendlier economy show up in consumers’ bank accounts. For companies looking to recover delinquent funds now, understanding how, when and in what way to engage consumers can increase recovery success. For lenders and collectors, here are some things to consider for 2025 planning:

• Self-serve = more repayment. For both businesses and consumers, reducing the need to engage directly with human agents to make payments or access account information saves time and resources. Solutions like self-serve portals represent a shift towards greater consumer control over their financial health, providing an efficient way for individuals to address and manage their finances—and debts specifically—on their own terms.

• Omnichannel or bust. If your business relies solely on one channel for customer communications, it’s time to evolve. Utilizing a combination of calling, emailing, text messaging and even self-serve online portals is the preferred experience for 9 out of 10 customers. And it’s not just beneficial for consumers–the omnichannel approach has been shown to increase payment arrangements by as much as 40%!

• Keep an eye on compliance (or make sure your debt collector does). The regulatory landscape will continue to change, especially post-election. Your risk and success hinges on how well you can keep up with the changes, so having someone responsible for monitoring and tweaking your strategy is critical.

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Q2 Industry Insights: Beating the Economic Heat and Keeping Up with Compliance

By on July 9th, 2024 in Industry Insights

The dog days of summer are ahead, and with inflation and high interest rates still sticking around, consumers in the U.S. will be feeling the heat financially. Consumer sentiment and data-based indicators tell some of the story, but what better way to gauge the consumer financial landscape than by looking at how people spend their free time and money? 

While consumers embraced the ‘YOLO economy’ coming out of pandemic times – spending wildly on products and experiences – today’s high inflation, low savings and a cooling job market have shifted priorities for many, leading to weakened consumer spending. And businesses are responding accordingly to the lower demand – several top musical acts from Jennifer Lopez to the Black Keys have canceled summer tours due to low ticket sales while retailers like Walmart and Target are lowering prices on certain goods to appeal to budget-strained shoppers. 

Despite families looking for ways to save this summer, their vacation plans must go on. The Transportation Security Authority has been anticipating and reporting record air travel numbers while a recent LendingTree survey found that 45% of parents go into debt to pay for a Disney vacation and few have regrets about it, indicating people will still prioritize spending for some experiences.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has been busy, with new rules impacting lenders and collectors across the spectrum. What does this all mean and what’s the outlook for the second half of the year? Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances, how consumers are reacting and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2024.

What’s Impacting Consumers?

Inflation finally started slowing in May and then showed a decline in June, landing at 3% from a year ago and the lowest level in more than three years. Both headline and core inflation beat forecasts but housing costs continued to rise and remain a key contributor to inflation. Being heavily weighted in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) formula, it’s unlikely to see big drops in CPI until these costs start to fall. In June, Federal Reserve officials held the key rate steady and penciled in a single rate cut this year while forecasting four in 2025, reinforcing calls to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Meanwhile, the labor market has moved close to its pre-pandemic state and the overall economy continues to grow at a solid pace.

But even the 2% drop in the energy index won’t be enough to combat the inflated cost of keeping cool this summer, with predicted extreme heat set to drive home cooling costs up to a 10-year high. The average cost of keeping a home cool from June through September is set to reach $719, nearly 8% higher than last year and a big jump from the 2021 average of $573. Concerningly for lower-income households, organizations distributing federal financial support expect they’ll be able to help roughly one million fewer families pay their energy bills this year, in part due to government funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) falling by $2 billion from last fiscal year.

Coming out of Q1, total household debt rose by $184 billion to reach $17.69 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage and auto loan balances continued climbing, increasing to $12.44 trillion and $1.62 trillion respectively. Overall, delinquency indicators decreased positively as we moved through Q2 as seasonally expected, partly due to tax season. In May, overall delinquent balances (30+ DPD) increased by 3.46%, driven by a 6.06% increase in delinquent mortgage balances. But mortgage was an exception, not the norm: there was a 0.55% decrease MoM in 30+ DPD delinquent accounts overall. 

Credit card balances also declined seasonally as expected in Q1 to $1.12 trillion, but new delinquencies rose with nearly 9% of credit card balances and 8% of auto loans transitioning into delinquency. Despite this latest decrease, credit card balances are still up $259 billion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Thanks to record interest rates, stubborn inflation and other economic factors, credit card balances are likely only going to climb, despite what we saw in the first half of the year.

The verdict is still out on how those with student loans are faring with resumed payments. Missed federal student loan payments will not be reported to credit bureaus until the fourth quarter of 2024. Because of these policies, less than 1% of aggregate student debt was reported 90+ days delinquent or in default in the first half of the year and will remain low through the end of the year.

Busy Season at the CFPB

With a flurry of announcements in the past few months, the CFPB has been busy. The biggest win: a long-awaited United States Supreme Court decision came out in May ruling that the CFPB’s funding is constitutional, leaving the Bureau free to uphold its mission of protecting consumers and ensuring that all Americans are treated fairly by banks, lenders and other financial institutions.

On the consumer fairness front, and after releasing research showing that 15 million Americans still have medical bills on their credit reports despite changes by Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, the CFPB proposed a rule to ban medical bills from credit reports, a move that would remove as much as $49 billion of medical debts that unjustly lower consumer credit scores. In another attempt to help consumers by bringing homeownership back into reach amidst high interest rates and home prices, the CFPB also started an inquiry into mortgage junk fees and excessive closing costs that can drain down payments and push up monthly mortgage costs.

As related to business operations oversight, in June the CFPB issued a new circular on “unlawful and unenforceable contract terms and conditions in contracts for consumer financial products or services.” This warning makes it clear that it is a UDAAP (Unfair, Deceptive, or Abusive Acts or Practice) to have an unlawful, unenforceable term in contracts with consumers.

Later in June, the CFPB also finalized a new rule to establish a registry to detect and deter corporate offenders that have broken consumer laws and are subject to federal, state or local government or court orders. This registry will help the CFPB to identify repeat offenders and recidivism trends to hold businesses accountable as historically, nonbank entities faced inconsistent oversight, making it challenging for regulators to identify and address potential risks to consumers.

As the CFPB works to accelerate the shift to open banking in the United States, it also announced a new rule establishing a process for recognizing data sharing standards and preventing dominant incumbents from inhibiting startups.

At the end of June, the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron doctrine, a precedent that has allowed federal agencies like the CFPB significant authority to interpret ambiguous laws. This means that judges will use their own judgment to interpret laws rather than deferring to agency interpretations, making it easier to challenge and overturn agency regulations. As a result, the industry’s regulatory framework will become more unpredictable as courts take a larger role in interpreting laws and will require businesses to monitor and adapt their compliance and legal strategies.

A Roller Coaster of Consumer Sentiment

The first half of 2024 has been an economic roller coaster for consumer spending, resulting in whiplash for consumer sentiment. While the soft landing may still be on track, that track doesn’t appear to be as straightforward as hoped. There is an onslaught of mixed messages from, “consumers are proving to be more resilient than expected as they continue to spend, staving off what had been predicted to be an inevitable recession” to “consumers are actually financially stretched from depleting their pandemic-era savings and battling ongoing inflation and higher interest rates”.

The latest Paycheck-to-Paycheck report from PYMNTS Intelligence found that as of March, 58% of all U.S. consumers live paycheck to paycheck, regardless of their income levels. Causes for this financial situation vary and range from insufficient income and family dependents to large debt balances and splurging unnecessarily. While financial goals also vary across consumer segments, paying down debt is one common goal across all generations: 15% of Gen Z, 20% of millennials, 23% of Gen X and 22% of baby boomers and seniors said repaying debt is a priority.

Recent consumer surveys have found that 22% of respondents expressed feeling less discomfort about spending a lot of money when using a credit card, and more than half reported they are more likely to make impulse purchases when using cards. Whatever the sentiment, people are feeling some confidence to continue to spend and continue to carry a debt balance, with 41% of consumers reporting a revolving month-to-month balance on their credit cards.

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

Between these highs and lows of economic indicators and consumer sentiment, a serious fact remains for businesses: delinquency will continue to be an issue through 2024. For companies looking to recover those delinquent funds, understanding how to communicate with consumers where they are in this roller coaster can mean the difference between repayment and write-off. For lenders and collectors, here are some things to consider:

  1. Shift the collection mindset. Pivoting debt resolution operations from only being focused on roll rates and placements to a more consumer-centric engagement strategy is the first critical step to productively engaging consumers.
  1. Customization is key. Effective debt recovery communications will resonate with consumers and match where individuals are with the right message to engage with empathy and options for repayment; the right channel to engage through their preferred method of communication; and the right time to engage on their own terms when they are ready.
  1. Don’t skimp on compliance. Not only does following the rules of debt collection keep you out of hot water, adhering to the consumer-friendly rules will set up the best possible experience for consumers, leading to better engagement and repayment rates. Here’s a comprehensive look at what you need to know about collections compliance to get started.

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Q1 Industry Insights: Persistent Inflation is Bananas and a Tale of Two Consumers

By on April 15th, 2024 in Industry Insights

Way back in January, 2024 was looking strong with decreasing inflation holding the promise of interest rate cuts that would ease the strain on consumer finances and reopen a tight market. Three months into the year, the outlook isn’t looking quite as rosy, but optimism for change persists. While the looming threat of a recession has passed, the outlook seems to point to inflation sticking around and consumer sentiment on the financial outlook this year is mixed. Case in point – even Trader Joe’s gave in and raised the price of bananas, from 19 to 23 cents, for the first time in 20 years, with loyal shoppers calling the move “the end of an era”. The Federal Reserve is still poised for a couple of rate drops this year, though the timing and impact of those are more in question, especially with the resilient labor market that could push interest rate cuts to later in the year to ensure inflation is truly tamed before acting and the global conflicts that are impacting Wall Street and interest rates.

The first quarter of the year coincides with tax season, when many consumers realize a tax refund that helps the strain on finances, which in turn produces an uptick in debt repayment. Strong liquidation rates this quarter don’t necessarily signal how the following months will perform. How has the economy impacted consumers this quarter and what’s in store for the rest of the year? Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances, how consumers are reacting, and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2024.

What’s Impacting Consumers?

Inflation persisted in Q1. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 0.4% in March, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.5%, or 0.3% higher than in February. This increase was driven by shelter and energy costs, with energy rising 1.1% after climbing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs increased by 0.4%, up 5.7% from a year ago. The Fed has been expecting shelter-related costs to decelerate through the year, which would allow for interest rate cuts, so this rising indicator is not favorable for consumer economic outlook.

Consumers kicked the year off with debt trending higher. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt rose by $212 billion to reach $17.5 trillion in Q4 of 2023 and credit card balances increased by $50 billion to a record $1.13 trillion. Mortgage and auto loan balances also rose, with the Bank saying the data indicates financial distress is on the rise, particularly among younger and lower-income Americans.

The emerging situation is what recent reports have dubbed “a tale of two consumers”. One consumer cohort is the roughly two-thirds of Americans who have done substantially well, own their homes and/or have invested in the stock market – this group had the savings cushion necessary to weather high inflation. The other cohort, made up of mostly middle- and lower-income renters who have not benefited from the wealth effect of higher housing and stock prices, has been hit harder by inflation and is feeling more financial stress.

Experts worry that members of this second cohort are falling behind on their debts and could face further deterioration of their financial health in the year ahead, particularly those who have recently resumed paying off student loans. While approximately 4 million relieved Americans have benefitted from $146 billion in student debt relief as a result of the Biden-Harris Administrations myriad executive actions, millions more are still left trying to add resumed payments back into their budgets amidst a stubbornly high cost of living.

To cover this additional monthly debt, 33% of surveyed consumers with student loans planned to reduce discretionary spending or use their savings; 28% said they would get a second job or do part-time or temporary work; 25% will use money from retirement savings; 21% will use credit card available limits; and 19% will borrow from family or friends, or delay a key milestone like marriage or home purchase. For those who expect student loan forgiveness, 57% surveyed say they would use savings from forgiveness to pay off debt, 10% would put the savings toward a home purchase, 26% say they would put savings toward other savings and 7% say they would spend their savings on other things, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking.

A Growing Mountain of Credit Card Debt and Other Indicators

For consumers who turn to credit cards to make ends meet, higher interest rates are making it more costly to carry a balance on a credit card, with the average credit card APR at a record 24.66%. Debt holders are also carrying their debt for longer periods of time, and struggle to pay it off as it compounds. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in Q4 2023. 

This starts showing up in increased credit card delinquencies, which soared more than 50% by the end of 2023, with about 6.4% of all accounts 90 days past due, up from 4% at the end of 2022. Delinquency transition rates also increased for almost all other debt types, with the exception of student loans. According to Experian’s Ascend Market Insights, overall 30+ days past due delinquency grew, starting the year with a 2.31% increase in delinquent accounts and 10.49% increase in delinquent balances month over month. Q1 of 2024 is also showing a rise in early-stage delinquencies, ticking up from 0.98% in January to 1.04% in February.

Missing payments correlate to another indicator of consumer financial health – the U.S. personal saving rate dipped down to 3.6% in February, compared to 4.1% in January and 4.7% in 2023. The situation remains that a majority of U.S. consumers (59%) live paycheck to paycheck as of February 2024, including 42% of those earning more than $100,000 per year. As an alternative to taking on debt, many Americans are taking on side jobs to increase income instead – as of February 2024, 22% of workers had a side job. The data also shows that 30% of employed consumers earning supplemental income depend on this money to make ends meet, up from 25% last year.

Consumers Worried About Inflation and Debt Accumulation

Unsurprisingly, 82% of consumers surveyed say concerns about inflation top their lists of economic woes, with only 17% holding out any hope that inflation will subside anytime soon. One of the few solutions available to consumers hoping to fight back against inflation is an increase in their paycheck, but the report found that fewer than 4 in 10 consumers anticipated a wage increase this year, down from 43% who expected a raise last year. According to the latest Compensation Best Practices Report, 79% of organizations are planning to give pay increases in 2024—the lowest number in years—in light of a strong labor market and cooling inflation, down from 86% in 2023. And the amount of raises planned for this year are generally smaller, with organizations predicting an average base pay increase of 4.5%, compared to the average of 4.8% given in 2023.

A slim majority of Americans (56%) reported optimism about their household finances in the next 12 months, according to TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey from Q4 2023. Millennials had the highest optimism among generations (71%) while Baby Boomers had the lowest (44%). Millennial optimism likely spurred from reported income increases and expected higher income growth in the next 12 months.

The Conference Board reported a mixed bag of consumer sentiment, with assessments of the present situation improving in March, primarily driven by more positive views of the current employment situation, while expectations for the next six months deteriorated. PYMNTS Intelligence data found that 15% of consumers say debt accumulation was a main pressure point on their savings, having dipped into those accounts to ease their debt burdens. 

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

With a mixed and uncertain economic outlook, consumers will be watching their finances closely. While some populations may reap wealth effect benefits and fare well financially, others will face headwinds with sticky high prices and student loan payments. For debt collectors, it will be critical to provide the right experience for each consumer and understand that everyone has a different financial situation with different considerations. While the first quarter may have brought increased liquidation due to cash influxes from tax season, the following months may bring challenges. We’ll soon find out, but as a lender or collector, here are some things to consider:

  1. Personalize your messages. What works for one consumer won’t necessarily work for the next. Consider the customer journey and tailor messaging so it resonates with consumers at different points in the debt collection process. It’s not just what you say, but how and when you say it that will determine how consumers respond. Learn more about the stages of the debt resolution funnel.
  1. Give options. For consumers balancing tight finances, paying a lump sum may not be possible. Payment plans facilitate smaller payments over time that consumers can work into their budgets. Other options like choosing what day to pay and the ability to reschedule a payment will also help consumers stay on track to repayment.
  1. Make it easy. When paying back debt is as simple as click→review→pay online, consumers will be more likely to engage. Using digital channels and giving consumers the pertinent information upfront so they can engage when and how they prefer means cutting out the middleman and empowering consumers to self-serve. 96% of consumers working with TrueAccord resolve their accounts without speaking to a human and often at times outside of standard customer service hours. 

Q4 Industry Insights: Cautious Optimism with a Side of Holiday Hangover

By on January 10th, 2024 in Industry Insights

2023 brought a whirlwind of an economy, and we spent most of the year trying to predict when things would finally turn around. The good news is that things are looking up, and so are consumer sentiments on their financial outlook. Despite the optimism, consumers are still battling high prices and interest rates, though the holiday shopping numbers would make you think otherwise. For consumers, the challenge of balancing finances persists and holiday spending hangovers are adding to the swing. If you’re a creditor or collector working with financially distressed borrowers, considering consumer situations against the economic landscape and accommodating their financial needs and preferences when collecting is critical to your success.

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and why employing digital strategies to boost engagement is more important than ever for debt collection in 2024 and beyond.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

After a lengthy struggle against inflation and high interest rates, the economy is showing welcome signs of strength and stability, ending the year in a far better position than most predicted. Headline PCE fell 0.1% in November and was up only 2.6% from last year, unemployment remained flat at 3.7% and the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9% from July to September. The Federal Reserve has indicated that the rate hikes are finished and it will be looking at cutting rates starting in 2024, an encouraging sign for the economy and consumers.

The fourth quarter marked the resumption of student loan payments for 22 million Americans, but repayment results were low. In October, the first month of resumed payments, 8.8 million borrowers missed their student loan payment—that’s 40% of loan holders. Some of this miss is attributed to an overwhelmed system and people making use of the Education Department’s 12-month “on-ramp” period, which guarantees that missed payments will not be reported to credit agencies until September 2024, protecting borrowers from the harshest consequences of missed payments like delinquency, default and collections. But interest will continue to accrue and only time will tell how much of this miss is actually due to inability to repay and what that will mean for those who can’t.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has had its hands full overseeing actors across sectors–from regional and large banks to auto and online lenders to mortgage and credit agencies–in an ongoing effort to protect consumers in an ever-growing landscape of financial product offerings. And as offerings grow, so do the issues the CFPB must watch. In Q4, the CFPB issued statements and proposed rules relating to accelerating open banking, oversight of big tech companies and other digital financial service providers, and discrimination concerns. Bureau director Rohit Chopra himself has an eye on the future, saying he’s concerned that a handful of firms and individuals could wield “enormous control over decisions made throughout the world” with advances in artificial intelligence.

The CFPB also took a close look at fees and interest rates, issuing guidance to stop large banks from charging illegal fees for basic customer service and finding that many college-sponsored financial products offer students unfavorable terms and unusual fees. And despite recent changes at banks and credit unions that have eliminated billions of dollars in fees charged each year, a December report found that many consumers are still being hit with unexpected overdraft and nonsufficient fund (NSF) fees. A reported 43% were surprised by their most recent account overdraft, while 35% thought it was possible and only 22% expected it.

Key Indicators and Consumer Finances

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023 to $17.29 trillion. Breaking it down, credit card balances increased by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion in Q3 2023, showing a 4.7% quarterly increase while auto loan balances rose by $13 billion and now stand at $1.6 trillion. Student loan balances also increased by $30 billion up to $1.6 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $2 billion. 

Experian’s Ascend Market Insights for November reports overall delinquency (30+ DPD) rose in November, with a 7.26% increase in delinquent units and an increase of 3.54% in delinquent balances month over month. Serious delinquency (90+ DPD) continued to rise month-over-month for all products except auto loans, which appear to be stabilizing. Credit card delinquency rates, on the other hand, rose sharply in Q3, landing at 5.3% and up more than 2% from the previous year. Notably, according to a Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the composition of newly delinquent credit card borrowers, the rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad across demographics, but is particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans.

After months of increasing delinquency rates, it’s not surprising that charge-off rates are following. The charge-off rate for all consumer loans was 2.41% at the end of Q3, up from 1.32% a year ago. As for credit card debt, the charge-off rates clocked in at 3.79%, up more than a half point from Q2 2023 and up from 2.1% a year ago.

The savings rate fell to 3.8% in Q3, down from 5.2% in Q2, while consumer spending jumped by 4%. This spending helped drive up the quarter’s GDP growth rate, but less saving could be a sign of financial strain amidst nagging high prices. And the excess savings from the pandemic? Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began, which could spell trouble for consumers in the event of an emergency or unexpected life event. About 116,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in Q3, slightly more than in the previous quarter. And currently, approximately 4.7% of consumers have a 3rd party collection account on their credit report.

Consumer Sentiment on Financial Outlook Improves

The economy’s resilience seems to be encouraging for consumers, with Americans’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months falling in December to the lowest level seen this year. In fact, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 110.7, up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. The overall increase in December reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, combined with less pessimistic views of business, labor market and personal income outlook over the next six months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations supports the optimistic findings. The report found that median one-year ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2 % in November to 3.4%—the lowest reading since April 2021. Combining economic optimism with a decline in expected spending, the result is a 0.2% decrease in the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months, which is good news for lenders.

Similarly, Deloitte’s ConsumerSignals financial well-being index, which captures changes in how consumers are feeling about their present-day financial health and future financial security based on the consumer’s own financial experience, increased to 101.4 in November, up from 99.1 last month and up from 97.6 a year ago. The overall takeaway is that many consumers are feeling better about their financial situations and are more optimistic about the future of the economy.

Preparing for Debt Collection in 2024

Optimism about the economy’s turnaround hasn’t hit wallets just yet—consumers are still feeling the financial pinch of the high costs of rent, groceries and other basics that haven’t started retreating to pre-pandemic levels. But that didn’t stop holiday shopping—U.S. consumers spent a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, up 7.5% from 2022. Cyber Monday numbers were even stronger—consumers spent $12.4 billion, up 9.6% from the previous year. And those figures don’t include the ​​118.8 million Americans who spent money at brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday weekend. 

Today’s consumer is using more and different financial products to cover the cost of the holidays, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) was a big driver of purchasing power this year amidst elevated interest rates. BNPL purchases, which allow shoppers to buy items on short-term credit and frequently with no interest, also reached a record high on Cyber Monday, making up $940 million of the total online spending—an increase of 42.5% over last year. While a helpful product for consumers, BNPL can be tricky as it doesn’t show up on most credit reports and can be an invisible and unaccounted-for debt burden. 

Every year, an estimated one-third of American adults go into debt to pay for holiday expenses. Growing debt balances, stubborn interest rates and elevated prices are still a thorn for consumers, and contribute to their overall financial stability. For lenders, service providers and debt collectors, guaranteeing repayment will still be a challenge as we start into 2024. So what’s the best way forward in engaging customers in debt collection who are balancing expenses and a bit of a holiday shopping hangover? Here are some things to consider:

  1. Prepare for timely factors. Keep in mind post-holiday bills can make January a difficult month to collect from consumers. But tax season is almost here, when consumers’ refunds create a better scenario for repayment of past-due balances. Plan for this time accordingly and ensure your engagement strategy is in place before February. 
  1. Consider email deliverability. Just sending emails doesn’t guarantee your message will reach your customer. With inundated inboxes, your outreach strategy needs to include how to cut through the clutter and ensure successful email delivery of your customer communications. Learn more about deliverability, the most important debt collection metric you probably aren’t measuring, and how it impacts your debt collection efforts.

  1. Options are your way forward. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from our consumer interactions, including the 16.5 million we added in 2023, it’s that no two consumers are the same, and what works for one may not work for the next. That’s why options are so important—in communication channel, customer support method, and perhaps most importantly, in repayment. Give your customers options for engagement and payment (think partial payments, payment plans, etc.) and you’ll likely see better collection results and customer experience.

Q3 Industry Insights: Preparing for Credit Card Bills, Student Loans and Holiday Spending

By on October 10th, 2023 in Industry Insights

We’re approaching the end of the year and fall is in the air – along with consumer financial uncertainty. Economic stressors persist and are likely contributing to many consumers relying on credit to cover expenses, while the resumption of student loan payments adds another financial obligation to the mix. For consumers, the conundrum of balancing finances continues as the holiday spending season sneaks up. If you’re a creditor or collector working with financially distressed borrowers, considering consumer situations and preferences when collecting is critical to your success.

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and why employing digital strategies to boost engagement is more important than ever for debt collection in 2023 and beyond.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

People are watching inflation and interest rates like hawks as effects from previous rate hikes slowly set in. The PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 0.1% in August, lower than the expected 0.2% gain. On a 12-month basis, the annual increase for core PCE was 3.9%, matching the forecast and coming in as the smallest monthly increase since November 2020.

While recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding and the U.S. banking system seems sound, inflation remains elevated. Tighter credit conditions will likely impact economic activity, hiring and inflation, but the extent of these effects is unpredictable. While the Fed’s latest move in September was to maintain the existing rate of 5.25-5.5%, the end goal is maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% and they are closely watching indicators to determine future rate changes.

Since April 1, more than 7 million Americans have lost Medicaid coverage since the forced hiatus of cancellations during the pandemic ended. Many people lost their coverage because their income is now too high to qualify for Medicaid, but a larger share have been terminated for procedural reasons and states are now seeing increased appeals and complicated legal processes.

After three years of relief from payments on $1.6 trillion in student debt under the CARES Act,  student loan payments resume this month. 40+ million borrowers who paid $200 to $299 on average each month in 2019 will soon face the resumption of a bill that is often one of the largest line items in their household budgets. For a deeper, data-driven analysis of how student loans impact consumers with debt in collections, read our report, “Consumer Finances, Student Loans and Debt Repayment in 2023”. 

Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has been looking at lending practices, advanced technology considerations and credit reporting that impact consumers. Of note for lenders, it issued guidance about certain legal requirements for specific and accurate reasons when taking adverse actions against consumers that lenders must adhere to when using artificial intelligence and other complex models. Bottom line: “the algorithm said so” doesn’t qualify as a reason.

The CFPB also started the process of issuing a rule barring reporting medical debt collections through the credit reporting system. The CFPB’s rulemaking would block credit reporting agencies from including medical debts on consumer reports that are used in making underwriting decisions. The proposal would not stop creditors from medical bill information for other purposes such as verifying the need for loan forbearance or evaluating loan applications for medical services.

Key Indicators and Consumer Spending

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased in the second quarter of 2023 by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion. Credit card balances increased by $45 billion from Q1 2023 to a series high of $1.03 trillion in Q2, a 4.6% quarterly increase. Other balances, including retail credit cards and other consumer loans, and auto loans also increased by $15 billion and $20 billion, respectively. 

With increased balances, delinquency remains a concern as it simultaneously continues to rise regardless of product type. Experian’s Ascend Market Insights for August reports overall delinquency (30+ DPD) rose in August, with a 2.81% increase in delinquent units and an increase of 3.11% in delinquent balances month over month. Serious delinquency (90+ DPD), which has been rising for all products, now exceeds pre-pandemic levels for auto loans and unsecured personal loans and is approaching pre-pandemic rates for bankcards, retail cards and secured personal loans. 

In August, the Fed reported that at the 100 largest banks, charge-off rates have been rising, most notably with credit cards. The charge-off rate for all consumer loans was 2% at the end of the second quarter, up from 1.1% a year ago. As for credit card debt, the charge-off rates stood at 3% in the second quarter, up from 2.75% in the first quarter, and up from 1.7% a year ago. Putting this in perspective, amid the Great Recession the overall charge-off rate hovered near 8% while the rate for credit cards hit 9%. While comparatively the situation may not seem as dire, the increasing trend on charge-offs is worth watching.

After bottoming out in September 2021, analysts at Goldman Sachs report that since Q1 2022, credit card companies are seeing an increasing rate of losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, on par with the 2008 recession. Losses currently stand at 3.63%, up 1.5% from the bottom, and Goldman sees them rising up to 4.93%.

Also in August, Americans’ $2 trillion in pandemic savings was nearly exhausted, with the current remainder of $190 billion projected to be spent down by the end of the third quarter. This has started showing up as roughly 114,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in Q2, slightly more than in the previous quarter. And approximately 4.6% of consumers had a 3rd party collection account on their credit report, with an average balance of $1,555, up from $1,316 in Q1.

Elevated inflation continues to strain budgets – the level of inflation in July meant families spent $709 more per month than two years ago. Battling the current economic challenges, consumers still have to make essential purchases and pay bills. According to PYMNTS, 43% of Gen Z consumers have been using their credit cards more often, and 66% of this segment lives paycheck to paycheck, up from 57% last year. Upon the resumption of student loan repayments in October, this group could lose as much as 4.3% of discretionary spending power, leaving less money on hand to pay back debt. 

Gen Z isn’t alone – Gen X borrowers with federal student loans on the books could see their discretionary income decrease by as much as 8.8%. With a similar proportion of this cohort living paycheck to paycheck, 71% of Gen Xers reported actively using credit, with 26% reportedly using credit more often than normal for everyday purchases. And according to a recent report from PYMNTS, this group has started embracing Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) as a strategic tool to manage spending and cashflow. 14% of Gen Xers said they had used BNPL – that’s more than the amount of Baby Boomers, less than millennials (20%), and roughly the same as Gen Z.

Consumer Sentiment on Financial Outlook Deteriorates

As more consumers are turned down for much-needed loans due to financial tightening and using more credit options for everyday expenses, the general sentiments around financial wellbeing aren’t very positive. According to Deloitte’s State of the Consumer Tracker, 38% of Americans feel their financial situation worsened over the last year and less than half feel they can afford spending on things that bring them joy. A similar 48% are concerned about their level of savings and only 44% feel they can afford a large, unexpected expense.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York concurs – in its August 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, income growth perceptions declined that month, and job loss expectations rose sharply to its highest level since April 2021. Sentiments are down across the board: Perceptions about current credit conditions and expectations about future conditions both deteriorated, and households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future both also deteriorated.

The key takeaway: many consumers are feeling stressed about finances and are uncertain about their financial future, which will impact their payment decisions and willingness or ability to engage with debt collectors.

Preparing for Debt Collection in Q4 and Beyond

As we approach the end of the year and enter the holiday spending season, businesses should prepare for the possibility of increased delinquencies as consumers reach a tipping point in savings and expenses. Last year marked a particular surge in consumers putting seasonal spending on credit, with 41% of Americans putting more than 90% of their holiday expenses on their credit cards, and nearly 42% anticipated going into debt—understandable as the average US shopper took on more than $1,500 in holiday debt in 2022. 

Compound the holiday expenses with resumed student loan payments, persistent inflation and high interest rates and the consumer financial outlook appears fragile. So what’s the best way forward in engaging customers in debt collection who are balancing a delicate financial situation? Any or all of these best practices can help:

  1. Go digital with communications. The numbers speak for themselves: 59.5% of consumers prefer email as their first choice for financial communication compared to only 14.2% who prefer to receive a phone call. Factor in working hour considerations and it becomes even more difficult to engage consumers via phone. Further, contacting first through a consumer’s preferred channel can lead to a more than 10% increase in payments.
  2. And digitize payments, too. Consumers have long been transacting online for purchases, and now three in five Americans expect all payments to be digital. The benefits of online payment options range from customer ease-of-use and adoption to operational cost reduction while offering increased payment volume to boot – 14% of bill-payers prioritize payments to billers that offer lower-friction payment experiences.
  1. Stay top of mind, respectfully. There’s a lot on consumers’ minds in today’s economy, and your bill may not be at the top of their priority list. When engaging delinquent customers, there are strategies to getting your message across that are better for maintaining customer relationships while effectively collecting debt. It’s important for both your customer relationships and compliance considerations to keep in mind the tone and content of your messages along with the cadence of your communications.

Q2 Industry Insights: Higher Monthly Expenses for Consumers, Regulatory Guidance for Financial Institutions

By on July 13th, 2023 in Industry Insights

With tumult in the banking industry in Q2 and inflation and economic stressors persisting, the financial outlook for American consumers remains uncertain. The ending of various pandemic-era benefits including the pause on student loan payments will impact consumers in the coming months. Student loan holders hoping for financial relief were disappointed in a Supreme Court decision that rejected President Biden’s plan to cancel more than $400 billion in student loan debt for millions of borrowers. Lawmakers are looking for other relief options, but in the meantime, many consumers will face higher monthly scheduled payments than they can cover, leading to delinquencies across credit types. If you’re a creditor or collector working with financially distressed borrowers, considering consumer situations and preferences when attempting to collect and employing digital strategies to boost engagement are more important than ever. 

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2023.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

High inflation and interest rates hung around in the second quarter of 2023. Inflation continued to ease month over month in May, landing at 4%, which is still double the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. The CPI rose 0.2% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for shelter accounted for more than 70% of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. 

In June, after 10 straight rate hikes, the Federal Reserve left the policy rate unchanged at the 5%-5.25% range, to allow time to see impacts from previous rate hikes. But “a strong majority” of Fed policymakers expect they will need to raise interest rates at least two more times by the end of 2023. Showing unexpected resilience despite higher interest rates, a late-June Commerce Department report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual pace from January through March as consumers spent at the fastest pace in nearly two years despite ever-rising borrowing costs.

In Q2, the pandemic-era benefit around Medicaid came to an end and has impacted more than 1.5 million Americans who lost health insurance coverage in April, May and June. Because only 26 states and the District of Columbia had publicly reported this data as of June 27, the actual number of people who lost coverage through the government’s main health insurance program for low-income people and people with certain disabilities, is undoubtedly much higher. The federal government has projected that about 15 million people will lose coverage, including nearly seven million people who are expected to be dropped despite still being eligible.

On the regulatory front, data protection is making headlines. Updates to the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), the Safeguards Rule, provide financial institutions, including those in the accounts receivable management industry, with requirements on how to safeguard customer information, went into effect on June 9. The amendments lay out a more prescriptive recipe for the safeguards financial institutions must have in place around collecting, storing and transmitting consumer information. Several states have actively been considering and passing new legislation requiring additional policies, controls, and practices not only in the data security space but also for data privacy and data breaches.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) published a Small Entity Compliance Guide covering the amendments to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and Regulation B, requiring that financial institutions compile and report certain data regarding certain business credit applications, including examples that explain how the requirements should be applied. 

There were also a couple of notable court decisions impacting debt collectors last quarter. First, the 6th circuit court of appeals determined that one phone call under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) is enough to establish standing, meaning the suit is based on an actual or imminent alleged injury that is concrete and particularized and, for the plaintiff in Ward v. NPAS, Inc., to establish a concrete injury. 

Second, and in a victory for TrueAccord, the Northern District of Illinois showcased the benefits of digital collection as the court found that receiving an email about a debt is less intrusive to consumers than receiving a phone call. In the Branham v. TrueAccord opinion, the court found that unlike telephone calls, two unwanted emails are insufficient to confer standing and wouldn’t be “highly offensive” to the reasonable person.

Key Indicators and the Student Loan Predicament

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased in the first quarter of 2023 by $148 billion (.9%) to $17.05 trillion. Debt increases showed up across almost all categories, with larger balances for mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans, retail cards and other consumer loans. Looking like an outlier, credit card balances were flat at $986 billion during Q1, but reading between the lines, this is the first time in more than 20 years that there hasn’t been a seasonal outright decline in that category.

And demand for more credit continues, which will drive household debt balances up farther. According to Experian’s June Ascend Market Insights report, new account originations were up 3.5% month over month with related balances up 7.7%. Breaking this down, auto loan account originations were up 0.7%, first mortgages were up 18.2%, while personal loans, HELOCs and second mortgages all grew significantly as well.

Indicators show that delinquency is here to stay. Experian reports that overall 30+ days past due (DPD) accounts showed a 0.4% increase month over month in May. While unsecured personal loan delinquency, which grew quickly in 2021 and 2022, has fallen for the fourth month in a row, this may be due to accounts progressing through delinquency – collections and charge-off rates for unsecured personal loans have grown to nearly 8% of balances. Auto loans, and particularly those in the subprime category, are seeing delinquency rates surpassing levels last seen during the Great Recession, coming in at 1.69% for 60+ DPD in Q1 2023.

Experian also reports that 1% of all consumer accounts rolled into higher stages of delinquency in April, which is in line with pre-pandemic norms and significantly higher than it was during the pandemic. Notably, 0.29% of accounts rolled into a lower delinquency status during May, a sign of collection effectiveness and of the relative financial health of delinquent consumers. This metric is still far below its historic norms and will be an important metric to watch as millions of consumers face higher monthly scheduled payments later this year tied to student loans.

After three years of relief from payments on $1.6 trillion in student debt under the CARES Act,  student loan debt is scheduled to begin accruing interest in September 2023, with payments due starting in October. 40+ million borrowers who paid $200 to $299 on average each month in 2019 will soon face the resumption of a bill that is often one of the largest line items in their household budgets. 

What’s more, research shows that student loan borrowers used extra space in their budgets during the pause to increase their leverage. Rather than paying down other debts, those eligible for the pause increased their leverage by 3% on average, or $1,200, compared with ineligible borrowers. According to the CFPB, as of September 2022, 46% of student loan borrowers had scheduled monthly payments for all credit products (excluding student loans and mortgages) that increased 10% or more relative to the start of the pandemic. 

The CFPB also reports that approximately 2.5 million student loan borrowers already had a delinquency on a non-student loan as of March 2023. That’s an increase of around 200,000 borrowers since September 2022, and that’s still without a monthly student loan payment obligation. This signals that many borrowers aren’t or won’t be in a financial position to repay or will face delinquencies on other loans in order to do so. For a data-driven look into this topic, read our report, “Consumer Finances, Student Loans and Debt Repayment in 2023”. 

Consumers Feel a Pinch but Remain Optimistic

As daily life continues to be more expensive for everyone, PYMNTS’ research finds that 61% of consumers lived paycheck to paycheck in April 2023, similar to the year prior. And the data shows that consumers in urban centers are especially feeling the financial crunch, likely due to a connection to cost of living, with 7 in 10 living paycheck to paycheck. Wealthier consumers comprise a growing portion of the paycheck-to-paycheck cohort, with the share of consumers annually earning more than $100,000 who live paycheck to paycheck increasing 7% from April 2022.

The US personal savings rate hovered at 4.6% in May, which is double last year’s record lows but still down significantly from pre-pandemic averages. Easing inflation seems to be improving consumers’ financial outlook, with fewer respondents citing concerns around savings levels, delaying large purchases, and worsening personal financial situations. However, the number of consumers feeling anxious about their job or employment situation steadily increased to 25% in May, up from 18% in February. 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s May 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7% to 11.3% in May. The increase was largest for respondents below the age of 40 with no more than a high school education, and those with a household income below $50k. Additionally, households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions and their own financial situations all deteriorated slightly.

For Debt Collection, Digital is Now a Must-Have

While consumers balance budgets amid high costs of living, more and more are using streamlined, digital payment methods. New studies show consumers are embracing the convenience of digital payments via payment portals even for healthcare bills, noting how it can minimize pain points in the payments process. Today, 9 out of 10 customers want an omnichannel experience with seamless service between communication methods, and transacting where it’s convenient for them, on mobile devices, is even better.

According to the Pew Research Center, reliance on smartphones for online access is especially common among younger adults, lower-income Americans and those with a high school education or less. In fact, 87% of TrueAccord consumers visit our web portal from their mobile devices and tablets, not their desktop computers. Choosing not to engage via digital methods can hurt vulnerable populations of consumers who primarily conduct most of their affairs digitally. 

If your business has been relying on calling alone for customer communications, it’s time to shift gears to a more effective way of maximizing repayment and conversion rates in a challenging financial environment. For lenders or collectors engaging with distressed borrowers, here are ways digital can boost your efforts:

1. Cost-effective customer communications at scale. When almost all communications with consumers can happen electronically via email and SMS with no human interaction, the cost of agents, who now only manage inbound emails or calls from already engaged customers, is reduced. Lenders that have implemented digital-first solutions have seen their cost of collections fall by at least 15%.

2. Online payment portals. When consumers can make payments online when it’s convenient for them, they’re more likely to repay. Add options like payment plans and flexible payment days to appeal to distressed borrowers and see repayment and liquidation rates improve.

3. Code-based compliance. When compliance is coded into an algorithm that helps make decisions on customer engagement in debt collection, you can ensure that all digital communications fall within federal and state laws and regulations. Compliance built into the code can help prevent costly mistakes especially with the complex patchwork of regulations.

Coast to Coast: the State of Privacy and Compliance in 2023

By on April 20th, 2023 in Compliance, Industry Insights, Webinars
Coast to Coast: The State of Privacy and Compliance in 2023

Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog post does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal advice. 

Protecting consumer privacy is not an unfamiliar concept in our industry and it’s something that should already be woven into our policies, procedures, and practices. With the rapid increase of state privacy laws across the United States, any company that collects, uses, transmits, or receives consumer data has to stay up-to-date on all related compliance issues.

In a previous webinar, Coast to Coast—the State of Privacy and Compliance in 2023, TrueAccord’s legal experts discussed the newest federal privacy laws and all the related compliance issues. Watch the full webinar on-demand now!

The passage of the FTC’s Safeguards Rule, amending the Gramm Leach Bliley Act (GLBA), has been a big topic in data security conversations across the financial services industry as businesses prepare to be in compliance on or before the extended effective date of June 9, 2023. Meanwhile, several states have actively been considering and passing new legislation requiring additional policies, controls, and practices not only in the data security space but also for data privacy and data breaches. It is important for Chief Information Security Officers, Privacy Officers, and Chief Compliance Officers to stay on top of this legislation, as well as Chief Executive Officers since we have seen many federal and state actions naming the CEO in their individual capacity for failing to properly secure and protect data or to properly delegate these responsibilities to the appropriate persons within their organizations. 

**Please note this article is not legal advice. This is not an exhaustive list of all laws. You should consult a lawyer if you have questions about federal and state data security, privacy or breach laws.

Data Breach Laws

All 50 states have data breach notification laws on the books. In 2022, 19 states considered enhancing their data breach laws.

Those states that passed revised data breach laws, tightened up notification timelines, added additional definitions of what constitutes personal information, and expanded the notification requirements to include additional state agencies. For example, Arizona’s law HB 2146, amending Arizona Revised Statutes section 18-552, not only requires that notification be made to consumers but also to the Director of Arizona’s Department of Homeland Security. If the breach impacts more than one thousand people, then the law requires the notification also be given to the three largest nationwide credit reporting agencies, the attorney general, and now the Director of Arizona’s Department of Homeland Security. 

While most states are shortening the time frame in which a consumer must be notified of a data breach to 45 days or less, some of these laws include exceptions or a short list of situations in which a delay in notification is permissible. For example, Indiana’s revised law, H.B. 1351, amending Indiana Code 24-4.9-3-3, limits a permissible delay in notification three circumstances: (1) when the integrity of the computer system must be restored, (2) when the scope of the breach must be discovered, or (3) when the attorney general or a law enforcement agency asked to delay disclosure because disclosure will impede a criminal or civil investigation, or jeopardize national security.

Both Maryland (H.B. 962, amending Maryland Personal Information Protection Act and section 14-3501 of the Annotated Code of Maryland)and Pennsylvania (S.B. 696, amending the Pennsylvania Breach of Personal Information Notification Act) expanded the definition of “personal information” to include medical and health information, including a definition of “genetic information” in Maryland’s law.

Since the webinar, Utah Governor Spencer Cox signed into law Senate Bill 127 on March 23, 2023, which amends the state’s data breach notification statutes. The amendments go into effect May 2, 2023.*

Along with updates to states’ laws, Federal regulators are also providing additional guidance too. For example, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) recently released more information regarding when banks need to know from their vendors about data breach including ransomware notifications.

Data Privacy Laws

In addition to creating and updating laws to help consumers in the event of a data breach, states have also been enacting laws dedicated to protecting consumer privacy. There are six states with comprehensive data privacy laws: California, Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa*, Virginia, and Utah. These laws give consumers various rights over their personal information, such as the right to know what information companies collect and use, a right to correct their information, a right to opt-out of the sale of such information, and a right to request deletion. 

In 2022, Congress introduced a federal privacy law, HR 8152, the American Data Privacy and Protection Act; however, it did not make it to the finish line despite having bipartisan support. It contained some preemption of state privacy and data protection laws, which would have been a relief to many companies navigating the existing patchwork of state laws.  As of January 2023, many states have introduced privacy-related bills and this is likely to continue throughout the years to come. 

California took the privacy law lead in passing the California’s Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 (CCPA) that went into effect in January of 2020 to protect the use and sharing of personal data. California recently expanded the CCPA with the California Privacy Rights Enforcement Act (CPRA) that took effect on January 1, 2023. The law created the new California Privacy Protection Agency and gave it the power, authority, and jurisdiction to implement and enforce CRPA. Additionally, businesses must regularly submit their risk assessment on the processing of personal information to this new agency. 

The four other states that followed suit have substantially similar laws with broad definitions of personal information. These laws typically apply to persons that conduct business in the state and processing a set minimum of consumer data records (typically 25,000 or more) or businesses who earn at least 50% of their revenue from the sale of consumer data. 

These laws give consumers various rights, such as the right to access their personal data, correct inaccurate personal data, delete personal data, in certain circumstances, obtain a copy of the personal data they previously provided to a controller, opt-out of the processing of their personal data if related to targeted advertising, sale of personal data or certain profiling activities, appeal a controller’s refusal to take action on a request, and submit a complaint to the attorney general if an appeal is denied. Interestingly, Colorado’s law makes clear that a consumer’s consent is not valid if obtained through the use of a “dark pattern.” 

These laws do not give consumers a private right of action but are enforced by the state’s attorney general with civil monetary fines calculated per violation. These laws also contain exemptions for data already protected by other laws, such as HIPAA, FCRA, and GLBA.

Virginia’s law took effect January 1, 2023. Both the Connecticut and Colorado Data Privacy Acts will go into effect July 1, 2023. The Utah Consumer Privacy Act takes effect December 31, 2023. The Iowa privacy bill (SF 262) was signed into law by Gov. Kim Reynolds on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. The legislation is set to take effect Jan. 1, 2025.*

Best Practices for the Future of Data Security & Privacy 

Having good security practices in place is not only beneficial for both consumers and businesses, but is absolutely critical to stay compliant with all the new laws and amendments being introduced. 

So what are some of the best privacy and security practices to implement to protect customers, companies, and stay compliant? 

  • Practice data minimization.
  • Know where personal information lives at all times by creating a data map of where the data goes and is stored throughout your systems, which includes knowing your vendor’s data security and privacy practices and controls. 
  • Know who has access to personal information and routinely examine if that access is necessary to complete that job function.
  • Be intentional with how data is organized and stored so it can be easily segmented and treated differently if need be (think network segmentation). 
  • Have a public facing Privacy Notice–and make sure it accurately reflects your practices for use, collection, deletion and correction.
  • Conduct an annual data security and privacy risk assessment to continually reassess areas for improvement and where you may need additional controls.
  • Ensure contracts with parties whom you receive and/or give personal information to specifically address each parties’ obligations and restrictions for how personal information is used, shared, disclosed, stored, and sold (if permitted).

Compliance with data privacy and data security requirements will continue to progress as new laws and regulations are passed. Best practices will continue to evolve as well, as we continue to learn more about the expectations from Federal and state legislators and regulators, and as companies navigate evolving threats and vulnerabilities. Watch the full Webinar: Coast to Coast— the State of Privacy and Compliance in 2023 here »»

Learn more in our Compliance & Collections Resource Center or schedule a consultation today! 

Footnotes: 

*The Iowa privacy bill (SF 262) was signed into law by Gov. Kim Reynolds on March 28, 2023 after TrueAccord’s Coast to Coast webinar. 

*The data breach law for Utah was passed on March 23, 2023 after TrueAccord’s Coast to Coast webinar

Q1 Industry Insights: Economic Stressors Persist while Pandemic-era Benefits End

By on April 5th, 2023 in Industry Insights

It’s tax season again, which can mean tax refunds for consumers that have historically been leveraged to stabilize finances or pay down debt. But with inflation and economic stressors persisting into the new year, many consumers are conflicted on their financial outlook and spending behavior is hard to predict. With uncertainties about how the end of various pandemic-era benefits will impact consumers, it’s more important than ever for creditors and collectors to implement strategies that consider consumer situations and preferences when attempting to collect.

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances and our industry, how consumers are reacting, and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2023.

What’s Impacting Consumers and the Industry?

High inflation and interest rates persisted in the first quarter of 2023. While inflation eased for an eighth straight month in February at 6%, price increases rose sharply again on a monthly basis – prices grew 0.4% following a 0.5% increase in January, driven by higher gasoline and rent prices. In response, the Federal Reserve continued its battle against high inflation in March by raising its key interest rate by another .25% despite concerns around the turmoil that has shaken the banking system, landing it at 4.75-5%.

At the beginning of March, the federal government ended pandemic-era payments for low-income families on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), causing nearly 30 million Americans to lose increased food stamp benefits. The extended payment boost was credited with keeping 4.2 million people out of poverty, with the average household expected to lose upwards of $95 per month in benefits with the program’s end.

In early Q2, another pandemic-era benefit around Medicaid will come to an end that will impact millions of consumers over the coming months. An estimated 15 million low-income Americans who were able to keep Medicaid coverage during the pandemic without needing to renew coverage or despite no longer qualifying will find themselves without health insurance. The Department of Health and Human Services estimates that in the end, more than 5 million children will have lost Medicaid, and predicts that Latino and Black beneficiaries will be disproportionately removed.

On the regulatory front, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) hit the ground running for 2023 with new guidance on subscription fees, proposed rulemaking on non-bank company terms and conditions, and issued an annual report sizing up the three credit reporting companies. Directly impacting creditors and debt collectors, a January ruling from the District Court of Puerto Rico found that sending debt collection communications prior to any knowledge of a debtor’s bankruptcy filing is not a violation of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA).

For businesses using pre-recorded messages to contact consumers, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) published a new rule specifying that to be exempt from the Telephone Consumer Protection Act’s (TCPA) consent requirements, callers are limited to three pre-recorded non-commercial, non-telemarketing, or non-profit calls per 30 days, and would need to include an opportunity to opt out of prerecorded calls as part of the message. The final amended rule will go into effect on July 20, 2023.

Meanwhile, eyes are on the Big Apple as the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) and the New York City Department of Consumer and Worker Protection are simultaneously engaged in amending their consumer debt collection rules. The DFS amendments would be an overhaul of its existing regulations and would include new debt types, while both amendments would introduce new disclosure requirements and additional restrictions on communications – specifically extending the existing requirement for direct consent to send email and text messages.

Key Indicators and a Heavyweight Court Decision

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased in the fourth quarter of 2022 by $394 billion (2.4%) to $16.90 trillion. Balances now stand $2.75 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic. In the same time period, the Federal Reserve reported that household net worth rose 2% to $147.71 trillion, driven by the value of equities holdings increasing $2.7 trillion offsetting a drop in real estate values by about $100 billion.

Consumers trying to make ends meet have continued turning to credit cards and other credit types to bridge the income to expense gap. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. consumer credit card debt has increased to nearly $1 trillion. Credit card balances jumped more than $60 billion over Q4 2022, lifting the total amount of U.S. credit card debt to an all-time high of $986 billion, the report found. Home equity loans and lines of credit continue to be an attractive option to homeowners, though high interest rates may make opening a new account less appealing in 2023.

Diving deeper into credit cards, Experian’s March Ascend Market Insights report found that credit card balances, while slowing slightly from previous months as seasonally expected, were up 18.8% year over year in February 2023. Additionally, the report found that there were 7.2% more open credit cards in February than there were a year prior. These balances and new cards coincide with an increase in interest rates, raising the stakes for delinquent accounts. According to a January 2023 Bankrate survey, 35% of Americans carry credit card debt from month to month, up 6% from 2022.

And delinquency is trending. Experian also reports that early-stage delinquency is nearing or exceeding pre-pandemic levels for most credit products, with exceptions for first and second mortgages, Home Equity Lines of Credit and student loans. 30+ day past due accounts showed a 2.12% increase month over month in February, while 90+ days past due unit delinquencies for auto loans and personal loans are higher than they were in 2019. Additionally, roll rates show 1.06% of consumer accounts rolled into higher stages of delinquency in February. Revolving credit utilization continues to slowly increase, as well. The same month, 63% of consumers had utilized 20% or less of their revolving limits, while 21% of consumers had utilization of 60% or more.

The student loan forgiveness debate continues into 2023 as the nearly 19% of Americans with student loans wait to see how the case shakes out with the Supreme Court. If successful, many consumers will see their overall debt burden decrease. If unsuccessful, those consumers will see no reduction in their debt and will be responsible for resuming payments that were deferred or went into forbearance during the pandemic. A ruling is expected sometime in Q2 2023.

While student loan delinquency rates have been almost nonexistent since payments were paused, the delinquencies in mortgages, auto loans and credit cards have been trending back to pre-pandemic levels, which doesn’t bode well for student loan holders with other debts. When student loan payments resume, consumers will have to prioritize debt repayment, leading to higher delinquency rates for other debt types. For a data-driven look into this topic, read our latest report, “Consumer Finances, Student Loans and Debt Repayment in 2023”. 

Consumers Sending Mixed Signals About Finances

As the cost of living remains high, 62% of Americans said they are living paycheck to paycheck in February, up from 60% the month prior, according to the latest Paycheck to Paycheck Report from PYMNTS.com and LendingClub. According to Deloitte’s State of the Consumer Tracker, consumers are feeling slightly more optimistic about their personal finances and the direction of the economy, but are also signaling stronger intentions to save versus spend. 

But Bankrate’s 2023 Annual Emergency Savings Report shows that growing debt is hurting consumers’ ability to save, with 36% of Americans reporting having more credit card debt than emergency savings, the highest on record since 2011. The report shows that consumer concern about finances is high, with 68% of people surveyed worried they wouldn’t be able to cover their living expenses for one month without their primary source of income, including 85% of Gen Zers — the most concerned of any generation. Unsurprisingly, 74% surveyed said economic factors, inflation and changes in income and employment are causing them to save less right now.

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

So far in 2023, the economic landscape isn’t cutting consumers any breaks. With persistently high inflation and interest rates, the impending threat of a recession and a number of pandemic-era benefits coming to an end, consumer finances will likely be impacted and stretched in myriad ways this year. For lenders or collectors engaging with distressed borrowers, here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. Meet consumers where they are, compliantly. While regulations and compliance impacted both phone calls and digital channels in some way in 2022, our takeaway is that a one-size-fits-all approach to debt collection communication won’t work at scale in 2023. By using an omnichannel approach, collectors are more likely to engage a customer on their preferred channel and open the door for engagement. For a closer look at what using an omnichannel approach means in debt collection, check out our latest eBook.

2. Give consumers agency to engage on their own time. What do emails and online payment portals have in common? Consumers get to decide when and where they use them. Just because a call center operates from 9-5, doesn’t mean consumers do. Remember that everyone’s situation is different, including when they can (or want) to address their debt. 

3. Give consumers flexibility on repayment time and terms. Higher monthly financial obligations make it harder for consumers to absorb unexpected expenses or carve out funds for debt repayment. Patience will be key in engaging distressed borrowers – give them payment plan options for when and how much they repay, which could mean smaller payments, shifting payments to align with their cash flow schedule or skipping a payment without penalty so they can get back on track.

Consumer Finances, Student Loans and Debt Repayment in 2023

By on March 21st, 2023 in Data Report, Industry Insights

The economy took a wild ride in 2022, and with interest rates continuing to rise, inflation expected to remain relatively high and household savings dwindling, 2023 could be just as challenging. As consumers battle high inflation and interest rates to afford necessities, budgets will be stretched and many will have to prioritize when and where they spend. Unsurprisingly, paying off debt will likely take a back seat to food, housing and transportation needs. But what will that mean for lenders and creditors?

In order to construct a comprehensive picture of the financial landscape for consumers with debt in delinquency, we analyzed data of thousands of consumers in debt collection to explore how they are positioned to handle financial stressors as well as how different financial burdens impact the repayment ability of consumers in debt collection, especially for those with student loans in this tumultuous economy. 

Key Takeaways from the Report:

  • Economic indicators show a rough road ahead for consumers
  • Resumed student loan payments will impact ability to pay debts – consumers with student loans have an average of $11,373 in non-student loan debt, or 92% more than consumers without student loans ($5,917)
  • Student loan holders increased their average number of open trade lines by 10.3% since 2020, while open trade lines decreased by 7.7% for non-student loan holders
  • Consumers with student loans have an average of $811 more in auto loan debt than those without student loans as of 2022
  • Engaging consumers with multiple debts requires understanding, personalization and patience in 2023

Download and read the full report for more insights.

Q4 Industry Insights: Economic Challenges, Big Unknowns and Worried Consumers

By on January 17th, 2023 in Industry Insights

In 2022 we started to see the toll inflation and economic stressors are taking on consumer finances. Inflation remained a top concern as the Fed tried to rein it in with rate hikes, and the higher costs and interest rates may have caused consumers to stretch their budgets as far as possible (or farther – holiday spending, anyone?), leading to a precarious financial outlook in 2023. As we start the new year with the continued threat of a recession and a shrinking employment market, building strategies that take consumer situations and preferences in mind is key, and of course, finding ways to work with distressed borrowers is the best path forward.

Read on for our take on what’s impacting consumer finances, how consumers are reacting, and what else you should be considering as it relates to debt collection in 2023.

What’s Impacting Consumers?

Compounding inflation and higher interest rates continued to be hard on consumer finances in Q4 of 2022. Inflation has been slowing, but still came in up 6.5% year over year in December, dropping 0.1% from November and driven by lower fuel costs. Food and housing inflation continue to rise at 10.1% and 8.1% annually respectively, and gasoline prices in January have already been rising. Interest rates sit between 4% to 4.25% after the latest 50 basis point rate hike, and the Fed projects raising rates as high as 5.1% (raised from a 4.6% projection in September) before ending the campaign to beat inflation.

According to Moody’s, while higher-income households saved more during the pandemic and are far less sensitive to rising prices, lower-income families are bearing inflation costs unequally and drawing down excess savings more quickly. Households earning less than $35,000 annually saw their excess savings shrink the most out of all income cohorts — their excess savings depleted by nearly 39% from Q4 2021 to Q2 2022 and was expected to run out by the end of the year.

Tasked with making ends meet and running out of savings, many consumers have turned to credit cards for extra funds. Credit card balances continued to climb for the ninth month in a row in November, up 16.9% year over year. According to Experian’s November Ascend Market Insights, there were 6.2% more open credit cards in October than there were a year prior and 11.1% more than at the end of October 2019 (pre-pandemic). Read: more credit cards with higher balances. 

And many of those credit cards belong to subprime borrowers who are more financially at risk to inflationary pressures and unexpected expenses. Equifax data reported by Bankrate shows that about 3.95 million traditional credit cards had been issued to subprime borrowers (consumers with a VantageScore 3.0 below 620) in Q1 2022, jumping by 18.3% and representing an overall credit limit of $3.29 billion, compared with the same period in 2021. And those balances will get more expensive as interest rates go up. According to Bankrate, credit card rates have risen to the highest levels ever since it began measuring the data in 1985, with today’s average annual credit card rate at 19.42%.

Credit cards aren’t the only option – consumers have other ways to access credit like personal loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOC). But these products are showing similar use trends, too. TransUnion reports that as of Q3 2022, 22 million consumers had an unsecured personal loan, the highest number on record, while total personal loan balances in the same quarter continued to grow, reaching $210 billion – a 34% increase over last year. Similarly, Experian reports that HELOC balances grew by 1.5% after increasing over 9 of the last 12 months. With HELOC originations down, the increase in balances is attributable to homeowners tapping into existing lines of credit as the cost of living rises.

Higher prices didn’t stop the holiday shopping – holiday sales rose 7.6% last year despite inflation, and much of that was online. Consumers spent a record $9.12 billion online shopping during Black Friday and another record $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) products, which help consumers with flexible payment plans, played a big role. From Black Friday through Cyber Monday, BNPL payments through leading providers jumped 85% compared with the week before, according to the most recent data from Adobe, with corresponding BNPL revenue rising 88% for the same period.

Key Indicators and a Big Unknown

According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt increased by $351 billion (or 2.2%) during the third quarter of 2022. Household net worth, which showed a record loss in Q2, continued to decrease in Q3 by another $392 billion (.3%). The value of equity holdings dropped $1.9 trillion and the value of real estate held by households only increased $820 billion.

Financial pressures mean consumers have less, if any, to save. The U.S. savings rate fell to a 17-year low in October, with the personal savings rate as a share of disposable income dropping to 2.3%. The latest Paycheck-to-Paycheck Report from PYMNTS and LendingClub shows that in November 2022, 63% of U.S. consumers were living paycheck to paycheck, a 3% rise from October. Spending more and saving less means many Americans may be at risk for financial hardship in 2023. 

Unsurprisingly, delinquencies are on the rise. According to Experian’s November Ascend Market Insights, there have been increases in 30+ days past due unit delinquency rates for six consecutive months, with those accounts showing a 3.28% increase month over month in October. This goes for both early-stage delinquencies, which are nearing or exceeding pre-pandemic levels for automobiles and unsecured credit products, and 90+ days past due delinquencies for auto and personal loans (higher than pre-pandemic). Experian’s data on overall roll rates also show that 1.32% of consumer accounts rolled into higher stages of delinquency in October 2022, representing the highest level of that metric since February 2020. 

But delinquencies haven’t peaked yet. TransUnion’s 2023 forecast, based on its latest Consumer Pulse Study, projects that both credit card and personal loan delinquencies will rise in 2023 from 2.1% to 2.6% and 4.1% to 4.3% respectively. If those projections come to bear, it would represent a 20.3% year-over-year increase in delinquent accounts. According to the report, Americans took out a record $87.5 million in new credit cards and $22.1 million in personal loans in 2022.

The big unknown around student loans will impact many consumers for better or worse. As President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program meets legal challenges, tens of millions of Americans wait to see what it means for them. If successful, many consumers will see their overall debt burden decrease, which may help stabilize finances. If unsuccessful, those consumers will see no reduction in their debt and will be responsible for resuming paused payments, which may further stress their financial situation. We’ll find out sometime in Q1 or Q2 of 2023, but the result will likely have a big consumer impact either way.

Consumers Are Worried About Inflation and Credit Cards

How are consumers feeling about the economic landscape and their personal finances? TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Study reports that 54% of consumers said their incomes weren’t keeping up with inflation, while 83% said that inflation was one of their top three financial concerns for the next six months. But despite concerns about rising prices, more than half (52%) of Americans said they felt optimistic about their household finances for the upcoming year, even though 82% of consumers believe the U.S. is currently in or will be in a recession before the end of 2023.

All those new credit cards are causing some concern for consumers, as well. An early December survey from U.S. News & World Report shows that more than 8 in 10 Americans who have credit card debt are experiencing anywhere from a little to a lot of anxiety about it. An overwhelming majority of respondents (81.6%), all of whom have credit card debt, express some degree of stress about it – from a little bit (33.1%) to a medium amount (27%) to a lot (21.5%). The combination of rising costs and insufficient income was the most common reason given for having credit card debt, with unexpected expenses a close second.

What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?

As consumers wake up in 2023 with a holiday shopping hangover and bills to pay, the economic landscape isn’t going to cut them any breaks. Consumers will have to prioritize what they can pay and when, which means repaying some debts may get moved to the back burner while food, housing and other basic needs are addressed. Will delinquencies rise as expected? Will consumers turn to more credit cards or BNPL for a stopgap? What happens to overall debt burden with all the unknowns? We’ll soon find out, but as a lender or collector, here are some things to consider:

Make it easier to engage. On their preferred channel, at a convenient time, with all the information they need is the best way to engage consumers. Bonus points if they can self-serve on their own time.

Make it easier to pay. Paying in full may be impossible for many people with tight budgets, and offering flexible payment plans or removing minimum payment requirements may make debt easier to tackle. Self-serve online payment portals are a win/win for your business and your customers.

Make it more empathetic. Balancing finances and being in debt is hard, and people are doing their best to keep up. Understand that you may not recover past due balances immediately and it may take time and patience. In addition to when and where, reconsider how you’re speaking to consumers and you may be surprised at how empathy drives engagement. Need proof? See how customers responded to TrueAccord’s digital approach to debt collection in our 2022 Year in Review.