Looking at key economic indicators—GDP growth, consumer spending, softening inflation and a healthy job market—it would be easy to deduce that consumers in America are faring well. But digging deeper reveals unwieldy debt, expected rises in charge-offs and uncertainty around future economic conditions, painting a less rosy picture of the financial situation.
Consumers certainly faced challenging economic conditions in 2024, but despite record-high credit card balances and delinquency rates, Americans continued spending, accumulating even more debt this holiday season. Data shows that more than a third of shoppers took on additional debt for the holidays, borrowing $1,181 on average, and that 47% of consumers still carried debt from the 2023 holiday season. With inflation proving more sticky than policymakers had hoped and uncertainty around how the new administration’s policies might affect it, it may take longer for people to see lower interest rates on their mortgages, car loans and credit card balances, which could prove challenging to household budgets.
The good news for lenders and debt collectors is that a reported 72% of consumers have a New Year’s resolution to pay off debt in 2025. The challenges will be effectively engaging consumers who want to repay and accommodating their strained budgets. We are entering a year of unknowns across the board, from potential regulatory changes to economic fluctuations to varying consumer sentiments, and there’s a lot to consider as it relates to debt collection in 2025.
What’s Impacting Consumers?
While inflation isn’t cooling dramatically, it also isn’t showing signs of speeding back up. December’s inflation reading didn’t bring any big surprises to close out 2024—the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate in line with forecasts at 2.9%. The core CPI annual rate, which discludes volatile food and fuel prices and is a key factor in policy decisions, notched down to 3.2% from the month before, slightly better than forecasted.
Despite the nagging inflation and still-elevated borrowing rates, the job market remains resilient, with employers adding 256,000 jobs in December, nearly 100,000 more than economists expected. The unemployment rate in December ticked down to 4.1%, lower than the forecasted steady rate.
The Federal Reserve started cutting rates in September 2024 and lowered its benchmark for a third straight month in December based on signs that the economy was slowing down. But the healthy December jobs report combined with lingering inflation supports the Fed’s intention to move forward with a slower pace of rate cuts this year—it is now penciling in only two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, down from the four it forecasted in September.
In November, the Fed released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q3, which showed total household debt increased by $147 billion (0.8%) in Q3 2024, to $17.94 trillion. The report also showed that credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.17 trillion, with the average U.S. household owing $10,563 on credit cards going into the Q4 holiday shopping season. According to Experian’s Ascend Market Insights, at the end of November, 5% of consumers had total balances over their limits and 11% of consumers had a high utilization of 81-100%.
Experian’s Ascend Market Insights from November also showed overall delinquent balances (30+ DPD) decreased by 3.78% while up on unit basis by 1.61%. This net was driven by decreases in delinquent first mortgage and unsecured personal loan balances, which were offset by increases in delinquent bankcard balances and on a dollar basis in delinquent second mortgages.
Meanwhile, millions of Americans may see significant changes to their credit reports in the coming months if they have either unpaid medical bills or student loans, but the effects of each are opposite.
Since March 2020, delinquent student loan borrowers have been exempt from credit reporting consequences, but the required payments resumed in October 2024. As a result, an estimated 7 million borrowers who have fallen behind on their federal student loan payments or remain in default will start seeing negative credit reporting in the coming months if they don’t resume payments.
Conversely, for the roughly 15 million Americans with unpaid medical bills, a new rule from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will ban and remove at least $49 billion in medical debt from consumer credit reports and prohibit lenders from using medical information in their lending decisions, providing a boost to credit scores and financial access.
CFPB Looks at Medical Debt, Student Loans and So Much Data
Medical debt wasn’t the only focus for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Q4. In addition to specific actions targeting offenders in the consumer financial services industry, the CFPB announced myriad other topics of interest to close out 2024 with a sharp focus on protecting consumers and their data.
At the end of October, the CFPB finalized a personal financial data rights rule that requires financial institutions, credit card issuers and other financial providers to unlock an individual’s personal financial data and transfer it to another provider at the consumer’s request for free, making it easier to switch to providers with superior rates and services. The rule will help lower prices on loans and improve customer service across payments, credit and banking markets by fueling competition and consumer choice.
In November, the CFPB issued a report detailing gaps in consumer protections in state data privacy laws, which pose risks for consumers as companies increasingly build business models to make money from personal financial data. The report found that existing federal privacy protections for financial information have limitations and may not protect consumers from companies’ new methods of collecting and monetizing data, and while 18 states have new state laws providing consumer privacy rights, all of them exempt financial institutions, financial data, or both if they are already subject to the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) and the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA).
Then, the Bureau finalized a rule on federal oversight of digital payment apps to protect personal data, reduce fraud and stop illegal debanking. The new rule brings the same supervision to Big Tech and other widely used digital payment apps handling over 50 million transactions annually that large banks, credit unions and other financial institutions already face.
As 28 million federal student loan borrowers returned to repayment, the CFPB issued a report uncovering illegal practices across student loan refinancing, servicing and debt collection, identifying instances of companies engaging in illegal practices that misled student borrowers about their protections or denied borrowers their rightful benefits. This followed the release of their annual report of the Student Loan Ombudsman, highlighting the severe difficulties reported by student borrowers due to persistent loan servicing failures and program disruptions.
Uncertainty in Consumer Sentiment
The Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from December showed that inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% for this year, increased to 3.0% from 2.6% at the three-year horizon, and declined to 2.7% from 2.9% at the five-year horizon. Reported perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined as did expectations about credit access a year from now. Additionally, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2% from 13.2% and was broad-based across income and education groups.
The November PYMNTS Intelligence “New Reality Check: The Paycheck-to-Paycheck Report” found that from September to October 2024, the share of consumers living paycheck to paycheck overall rose slightly from 66% to 67%. Surveyed cardholders said their outstanding credit balance is either holding constant or increasing—25% said their outstanding balance increased over the last year, while 55% said it stayed about the same. Moreover, many consumers, and especially those having trouble paying their monthly bills, report maxing out their cards regularly and using installment plans to cover basic necessities.
According to NerdWallet’s 2024 American Household Credit Card Debt Study, more than 1 in 5 Americans who currently have revolving credit card debt (22%) say they generally only make the minimum payment on their credit cards each month. And with credit card rates averaging 20%, interest costs could almost triple the average debt for those making minimum payments after factoring in interest expenses.
The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment dropped to 73.2 at the start of January 2025 from 74.0 in December after views of the economy weakened on expectations of higher inflation in light of the new administration’s proposed tax cuts and new import tariffs. Unlike some of the polarization of recent months, which had seen more positive responses among Republicans than Democrats, January’s deterioration in economic expectations was seen across political affiliations. While consumers’ views of their personal finances improved about 5%, their economic outlook fell back 7% for the short run and 5% for the long run, with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 3.3%, up from 2.8% in December and the highest since May last year.
What Does This Mean for Debt Collection?
Over the next 12 months, debt collection companies expect an increase in account volume but a potential decrease in account liquidity, according to TransUnion’s latest Debt Collection Industry Report. If the goals are implementing strategic operational efficiencies and improving the consumer experience to facilitate debt repayment, the means to the ends include investing in technologies like artificial intelligence, solving for scalability, and optimizing communication channels and consumer self-service engagement. For lenders and collectors, here are some recommendations for your debt collection strategy in 2025:
- Scalability, Go Big or Go Home. Higher account volume calls for operations that can scale cost-effectively while offering the right consumer experience. Embracing smart technology is your best bet to keep up, and figuring out when to buy tech-enabled products and services versus when to invest in building it yourself will be key to making it work.
- Reduce Friction for Consumers. Self-service portals in collections reduce friction and foster a sense of autonomy for consumers to manage their debt without the pressure or inconvenience of interacting with a call center agent. Besides creating a more streamlined experience for the consumer, organizations will also benefit from associated cost-savings, compliance controls and scalability.
- Compliance Changes, Adapt or Perish. The debt collection industry experienced notable legal and compliance changes in 2024, including important litigation outcomes and updates to digital communications regulations, and keeping up with more changes to come will be critical to your business. Join our Legal and Compliance Roundup webinar on Jan. 29 to learn about the latest developments and how they will shape strategies and industry practices in 2025. Register here: https://bit.ly/4h4tacd
SOURCES:
- PaymentsJournal – New Holiday Debt
- USA Today – Leftover Holiday Debt
- BadCredit.org – Financial New Year’s Resolutions
- CNBC – Inflation
- CBS News – Jobs
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York – Household Debt and Credit
- Forbes – Medical and Student Debt
- Education Department – Student Loan Borrows in Default
- CFPB – Federal Oversight of Digital Payment Apps
- CFPB – State Data Privacy Gaps
- CFPB – Personal Financial Data Right Rule
- CFPB – Illegal Practices in Student Loans
- CFPB – Student Loan Ombudsman Annual Report
- Federal Reserve – Consumer Expectations
- PYMNTS Intelligence – Paycheck to Paycheck
- Wall Street Journal – Consumer Confidence (Univ. of Michigan)
- NerdWallet – 2024 American Household Credit Card Debt Study
- TransUnion – Debt Collection Industry Report 2024